Reasons that favour Mastercard over Visa

Diversified, non-card revenue growth: increasing value-added services (data/analytics, security, gateway) enhance revenue per transaction and reduce pure-volume dependence.
International mix and growth runway: large exposure to faster-growing regions and cross-border flows gives higher long-term volume growth potential.
Strong profitability: very high margins and operating leverage (MA’s business is asset-light with >50% EBIT margin historically), which supports durable cash generation.
Faster/consistent earnings and FCF growth: multi-year revenue, EPS and free-cash-flow growth have been robust, supporting reinvestment, buybacks and modest dividends.
High returns on capital: exceptionally strong ROE/ROCE metrics indicate efficient capital deployment and a profitable franchise.
Capital return plus balance-sheet strength: consistent buybacks and low payout ratio leave room for continued repurchases and investment.
Still some valuation support:

Key risks to weigh

Competitive dynamics: Visa, fintechs, and network alternatives (real-time rails, CBDCs) can pressure volumes and pricing.
Regulatory & litigation risk: card networks face ongoing regulatory scrutiny and periodic legal exposures that can impact economics.
Dependence on global consumer spending and cross-border travel: recession or prolonged weakness in discretionary spending hurts volumes.
Valuation sensitivity: premium multiples are built on continued high growth and margins; disappointment risks share price.
Concentration of revenues: large share of revenue still tied to payment volumes and merchant/issuer relationships.

Valuation

intrinsic/analyst targets (per available MA data) imply upside vs. current price, giving a margin for error in a long-term thesis.
At reasonable assumption at 10% revenue growth, 45% margin and PE in 2030 at 30x (assuming consistent growth expected at that point), the stock looks fairly value at the point this narrative is written.
- Any additional revenue and earning stream growth outside of card payment will be the creamy cherry on top.

Disclaimer

QuanD is an employee of Simply Wall St, but has written this narrative in their capacity as an individual investor. QuanD holds no position in NYSE:MA. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimate's are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.