Digital Asset Infrastructure And ESG Trends Will Transform Markets

Key Takeaways

• Expansion in digital assets, alternative investments, and ESG offerings is expected to diversify revenue streams and broaden the client base.
  
• Demographic trends and demand for safety and yield position the firm for sustained growth in money markets and fixed income products.
  
• Increased competition, regulatory pressures, and reliance on certain products may constrain growth and compress margins, challenging Federated Hermes against larger, more diversified peers.

Catalysts

A publicly owned investment manager.

• Expansion in digital asset infrastructure, including active participation in tokenized money market funds and collaborative blockchain initiatives with major institutions, is expected to broaden product distribution channels, attract new client segments, and drive future AUM and revenue growth.
  
• Growth in money market fund assets, supported by increasing institutional and retail demand for safety and attractive yields within a volatile, low-to-moderate interest rate environment, positions Federated Hermes' money market franchise for sustained asset and revenue gains.
  
• Global demographic shifts, particularly aging populations demanding more retirement and income-oriented products, are expected to drive growth in cash management and fixed income AUM over the long term, contributing to core revenue stability.
  
• Rising global wealth and increased interest in professionally managed and alternative investments-such as the firm's growing private markets platform and recent energy transition-focused acquisitions-expand Federated Hermes' client base and diversify revenue streams, supporting higher net margins.
  
• Intensifying market focus on ESG investing and continued investment in sustainable product offerings, enabled by the Hermes acquisition and development of renewable energy capabilities, are likely to enable higher management fees and support both revenue and earnings growth in the coming years.

Federated Hermes Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Federated Hermes's revenue will grow by 3.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 20.8% today to 20.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $379.7 million (and earnings per share of $5.49) by about August 2028, up from $349.9 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 9.8x on those 2028 earnings, down from 10.9x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Capital Markets industry at 26.8x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 6.09% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.3%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Federated Hermes Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Ongoing fee compression and increased competition in the asset management industry, particularly as more investors shift to lower-cost passive products, could pressure Federated Hermes' active management revenues and compress margins over the long term.
  
• The company's continued reliance on money market funds for a substantial share of AUM and revenue exposes it to risks from changing interest rate environments, regulatory shifts, and potential digital asset or fintech disruptions, all of which could negatively impact net revenue and earnings.
  
• Below-peer organic growth in certain segments, such as fixed income (which saw net outflows in the quarter), signals challenges in capturing net new assets compared to larger, more diversified asset managers, potentially constraining future revenue growth and operating margins.
  
• Growing regulatory complexity and evolving standards (including ESG and digital asset oversight) are likely to lead to higher compliance costs and operational burdens, which could contribute to lower net margins over time.
  
• Industry consolidation and the need for greater scale to compete on product breadth and global distribution may put mid-sized firms like Federated Hermes at a disadvantage versus larger players, limiting their ability to win lucrative mandates and potentially hindering long-term earnings growth.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $48.143 for Federated Hermes based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $54.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $42.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.9 billion, earnings will come to $379.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 9.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.3%.
  
• Given the current share price of $51.45, the analyst price target of $48.14 is 6.9% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.