Last Update 04 Dec 25

CRBG: Lower Share Count And Larger Asset Base Will Drive Future Earnings

Analysts have nudged their average price target on Corebridge Financial up by $1 to $40, citing slightly higher out year EPS forecasts driven by a lower share count, a larger asset base, continued confidence in fee based earnings, and favorable claims trends.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a generally constructive stance on Corebridge Financial, with price targets clustering around the high 30 dollar to 40 dollar range and ratings remaining positive even when targets are trimmed. Analysts highlight a mix of structural earnings drivers and near term headwinds that inform their updated valuation frameworks.

Bullish analysts are focusing on Corebridge's ability to grow fee based earnings, manage capital efficiently through share count reduction, and benefit from a larger asset base, all of which support modest upward revisions to out year EPS estimates. At the same time, cautious analysts are recalibrating price targets to reflect sector wide assumptions, normalization in investment income, and lingering macro uncertainty.

Bullish Takeaways

Higher out year EPS forecasts, driven by a lower share count and a growing asset base, are seen as supportive of upside to current valuation multiples.
Stable and expanding fee based earnings, aided by additional fee days and equity market tailwinds, underpin confidence in more durable, less volatile revenue streams.
Favorable claims trends and a relatively benign catastrophe environment are viewed as validating reserve assumptions and reinforcing visibility into future earnings emergence.
Strong distribution across key product lines is interpreted as evidence that Corebridge can continue to capture growth opportunities and scale profitability over time.

Bearish Takeaways

Some bearish analysts are trimming price targets to reflect a more conservative sector view, indicating limited multiple expansion potential despite solid fundamentals.
Normalization of variable investment income, while expected, reduces the scope for positive earnings surprises from spread based businesses.
Persistent secular flow headwinds in certain products temper enthusiasm around fee income growth and could cap near to medium term top line acceleration.
Elevated macro uncertainty earlier in the year has not yet translated into major earnings pressure, but remains a risk factor that justifies more measured valuation assumptions.

What's in the News

Piper Sandler lowered its Corebridge price target to $40 from $42 but maintained an Overweight rating, citing known normalization in variable investment income, ongoing fee and equity tailwinds, and favorable claims experience supporting future earnings visibility (Piper Sandler research).
Corebridge completed a follow on equity offering of approximately $513 million, issuing 16.49 million shares of common stock at about $31.10 per share, alongside a larger filed follow on for 32.6 million shares, expanding the public float and capital base (company follow on equity offering filings).
The company reported significant share repurchase activity, buying back 22.7 million shares for $753.6 million in the latest tranche and completing repurchases of 132.5 million shares, or 22.43 percent of shares outstanding, for $3.68 billion under its ongoing buyback program (company buyback update).
Corebridge announced leadership changes, naming Marc Costantini as Chief Executive Officer effective around December 1, 2025. Current CEO Kevin Hogan will transition to a special advisor role for six months, and CFO Elias Habayeb plans to depart in April 2026 after overseeing 2025 reporting and the 2026 budget (company executive announcements).
Corebridge broadened its distribution through a new partnership with Allstate Financial Services, making its term and index universal life products, including Select a Term, Max Accumulator Plus, and Value Plus Protector, available nationwide via licensed Allstate professionals (company client announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately $38.77 per share, indicating no material shift in intrinsic value assumptions.
Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from about 9.32 percent to 9.26 percent, reflecting a modest reduction in the required return profile.
Revenue Growth: Essentially unchanged at roughly 7.59 percent, implying stable top line growth expectations.
Net Profit Margin: Effectively flat at about 11.75 percent, suggesting consistent profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: Eased slightly from around 8.06x to 8.05x, pointing to a negligible adjustment in forward valuation multiples.

Rising demand for retirement income products, supported by demographic shifts and product innovation, is fueling Corebridge's growth and market positioning.
Digital modernization, risk reduction strategies, and a capital-light model are driving efficiency, stability, and improved shareholder returns.
Greater dependence on fee-based and spread-based products, vulnerable partnerships, and technology lag may constrain Corebridge's profitability, revenue growth, and competitive positioning.

Catalysts

About Corebridge Financial

Provides retirement solutions and insurance products in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Corebridge is set to benefit from robust growth in individual retirement and annuities sales as the aging U.S. population turns 65 in record numbers, fueling increased demand for guaranteed income products-supporting long-term revenue and AUM expansion.
Ongoing shifts from defined benefit pensions to IRAs and 401(k)s are creating sustained secular tailwinds for lifetime income and insurance solutions, positioning Corebridge's broad, innovative annuity and retirement product suite for above-market sales growth and improved future earnings.
The company's focused investments in digital modernization, AI-driven underwriting, and partnerships have led to improved customer acquisition, operating efficiencies, and a 14% reduction in general operating expenses since IPO, driving structurally lower expense ratios and higher net margins.
The transformative exit from legacy variable annuity risk via the reinsurance transaction has enhanced Corebridge's balance sheet, reducing earnings volatility and freeing significant capital for EPS-accretive share repurchases-expected to accelerate EPS growth and return on equity.
Consistent execution of a capital-light, fee-based revenue mix in Group Retirement and growing advisory/brokerage assets are improving revenue diversification and cash flow stability, further supporting sustainable earnings and shareholder capital returns.

Corebridge Financial Earnings and Revenue Growth

Corebridge Financial Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Corebridge Financial's revenue will grow by 11.5% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -2.1% today to 13.3% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $3.0 billion (and earnings per share of $6.63) by about September 2028, up from $-337.0 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $2.6 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from -53.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Diversified Financial industry at 16.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 5.31% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.18%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Corebridge Financial Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Corebridge's transition away from variable annuities removes a declining but still material earnings source and increases concentration in spread-based and fee-based products; sustained low or declining interest rates could compress investment portfolio yields and reduce overall profitability and net margins.
Ongoing shifts in Group Retirement from spread-based to fee-based products, while positive for capital-light growth, involve fee income that is currently growing only modestly and is exposed to outflows and large plan exits, which can depress revenue if not replaced with new inflows.
The reliance on strategic distribution partnerships-including those inherited from AIG and new RILA channels-poses risks if any major relationships are lost or if competitive forces erode Corebridge's shelf space; this could impact both sales growth and top-line revenue.
Climate change impacts and episodic volatility in the Institutional Markets segment (such as pension risk transfer and GICs), as well as periods of weak alternative asset performance and real estate valuations, can contribute to uneven reserve and income growth, affecting both earnings stability and long-term ROE.
While management highlights digitization and AI as efficiency drivers, slower progress in full end-to-end process modernization in businesses outside Life Insurance may limit operating leverage improvements and keep expense ratios higher than industry leaders, constraining future margin expansion.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $41.077 for Corebridge Financial based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $46.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $37.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $22.3 billion, earnings will come to $3.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.2%.
Given the current share price of $33.39, the analyst price target of $41.08 is 18.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analyst Commentary Highlights Slight Price Target Cut and Mixed Outlook for Corebridge Financial