European Expansion Will Open Access To Key Tech Markets And Diversify Income Streams

Key Takeaways

• European expansion and strategic growth in key tech markets enhance revenue potential and diversify income streams.
  
• A strong investment pipeline and scaling business verticals are set to drive long-term revenue growth and market expansion.
  
• Rapid growth and reliance on equity issuance may lead to investor concerns, credit quality issues, and risks related to European expansion impacting revenue.

Catalysts

A business development company.

• Trinity Capital's European expansion provides increased global exposure and access to active tech markets, supporting future revenue growth and diversification of income streams.
  
• The strong investment pipeline with $660 million in unfunded commitments positions the company well for continued revenue growth as these funds are deployed.
  
• The internally managed structure aligns management and employee interests with those of shareholders, potentially leading to improved net margins as operational efficiencies are realized.
  
• The focus on building out the asset management business and raising capital off-balance sheet is poised to generate management and incentive fees, positively impacting future earnings.
  
• Strategic emphasis on scaling and growing the five distinct business verticals (tech lending, equipment finance, life sciences, warehouse financing, and sponsor finance) is expected to drive long-term revenue growth and market share expansion.

Trinity Capital Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Trinity Capital's revenue will grow by 17.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 42.6% today to 50.1% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $168.3 million (and earnings per share of $2.12) by about December 2027, up from $87.4 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 9.2x on those 2027 earnings, down from 9.6x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Capital Markets industry at 23.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 10.51% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.11%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Trinity Capital Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The rapid pace of growth in originations and the subsequent substantial equity issuance might lead to investor concerns about dilution and could pressure net margins if the growth is not effectively managed.
  
• The increase in nonaccrual loans from four to five indicates potential credit quality issues, suggesting that some investments might not generate expected returns, impacting net earnings.
  
• The potential risks associated with expanding into Europe, such as currency fluctuations or economic instability in the region, could affect revenue negatively if not managed properly.
  
• The reliance on equity ATM programs for significant fundraising could suggest apprehension about the long-term pressure on share price, possibly affecting overall earnings per share.
  
• A noted improvement in the credit rating system appears mainly due to capital raises, but the dependence on such events could mask underlying credit risks which may disrupt consistent revenue generation in future periods.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $15.59 for Trinity Capital based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $17.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $13.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $336.0 million, earnings will come to $168.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 9.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.1%.
• Given the current share price of $14.3, the analyst's price target of $15.59 is 8.3% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.