iShares Trust - iShares Semiconductor ETFSOXX
SOXX logo
Fair Value
US$640
Share price16 Jun
US$522.3518.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
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1Y115.53%
7D-5.15%

SOXX – iShares Semiconductor ETFFull Analysis Report & EOY 2027 Fair Value Estimate

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Published
16 Jun 26
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308
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1.  FUND SNAPSHOT

Metric

Value

Ticker

SOXX (NASDAQ)

Current Price

$591.24

52-Week Range

$221.86 – $629.72

Assets Under Management (AUM)

$36.93 Billion

Shares Outstanding

72.00 Million

Expense Ratio

0.34%

Dividend Yield (TTM)

0.25%  (Quarterly payout)

Inception Date

July 10, 2001

Index Tracked

NYSE Semiconductor Index

Total Holdings

34 Stocks

PE Ratio (Fund Level)

57.08x

Beta

1.80 (High volatility vs. S&P 500)

Management Style

Passive (Index-tracking)

ETF Provider

BlackRock (iShares)

2.  TOP 10 HOLDINGS (62.12% of Total Assets)

Rank

Company

Ticker

Weight

1

Micron Technology

MU

11.55%

2

Advanced Micro Devices

AMD

8.70%

3

Marvell Technology

MRVL

8.22%

4

Intel Corporation

INTC

6.13%

5

Broadcom Inc.

AVGO

5.77%

6

NVIDIA Corporation

NVDA

5.53%

7

Applied Materials

AMAT

5.30%

8

KLA Corporation

KLAC

3.78%

9

Lam Research

LRCX

3.71%

10

QUALCOMM

QCOM

3.41%

3.  SECTOR ALLOCATION

Sector

Allocation

Semiconductors & Equipment

91.57%

Other / Mixed Technology

8.43%

⚠ SOXX is a pure-play semiconductor ETF — highly concentrated in one sub-industry. This drives exceptional upside during chip upcycles but amplifies drawdowns during downturns.

4.  HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE

Period

Total Return (incl. dividends)

1 Month

16.32%

Year-to-Date (YTD)

96.54%

1 Year

169.42%

5 Years

33.33% annualized

10 Years

35.45% annualized

Since Inception (2001)

14.63% annualized

★ SOXX is up ~96.5% YTD (2026) and ~169% over the trailing 12 months — one of the best-performing ETFs in the market, driven by the AI-induced semiconductor supercycle.

5.  RISK METRICS

Metric

Value

Comment

Beta (vs. S&P 500)

1.80

High — moves ~1.8x market swings

52-Wk Drawdown (Max)

-64.7% (from high)

From $629.72 high to $221.86 low

Concentration Risk

Very High

Top 3 = 28.47% of fund

Sector Risk

Extreme

91.57% in semiconductors

Geopolitical Risk

High

Exposure to Taiwan (TSM), Korea, China supply chain

Expense Ratio

0.34%

Moderate vs. 0.04% for broad index ETFs

Dividend Yield

0.25%

Minimal income — growth-oriented

PE Ratio

57.08x

Premium valuation vs. S&P 500 (~22x)

6.  REVENUE ANALYSIS — TOP HOLDINGS (2026 Estimates)

Company

Est. 2026 Revenue

YoY Growth

Primary Driver

Micron (MU)

$43B+

+60%+

HBM memory for AI GPUs, DRAM supercycle

AMD

$30B+

+25%+

MI300X AI accelerators, EPYC CPUs

Marvell (MRVL)

$9B+

+50%+

Custom AI silicon, data center networking

Intel (INTC)

$54B+

+5%

Foundry ramp, Panther Lake launch

Broadcom (AVGO)

$65B+

+20%+

Custom AI ASICs, VMware integration

NVIDIA (NVDA)

$195B+

+100%+

Blackwell GPUs, AI data center dominance

Applied Materials (AMAT)

$32B+

+15%

Semiconductor equipment — all nodes

QUALCOMM (QCOM)

$42B+

+10%

Snapdragon AI, automotive chips

7.  PROFIT MARGIN ANALYSIS

Company

Gross Margin

Net Margin

Trend

Micron (MU)

~55%

~30%+

⬆ Surging (memory pricing recovery)

AMD

~53%

~15%

⬆ Expanding as AI mix rises

Marvell (MRVL)

~60%

~20%+

⬆ Custom chip mix improving

Intel (INTC)

~42%

~5%

→ Recovering from foundry losses

Broadcom (AVGO)

~75%

~35%

→ Stable with VMware contribution

NVIDIA (NVDA)

~75%

~55%+

⬆ Record margins on Blackwell

Applied Materials (AMAT)

~48%

~25%

→ Steady equipment cycle

QUALCOMM (QCOM)

~56%

~25%

→ Stable licensing + premium chips

8.  VALUATION & FUTURE PE ANALYSIS

Current Valuation Context:

SOXX trades at a trailing PE of 57.08x — significantly above historical averages (~30-35x) for the semiconductor sector. However, forward PE based on 2026/2027 earnings estimates is considerably more reasonable as earnings are growing explosively due to AI demand.

Metric

Current

Forward (2026E)

Forward (2027E)

Fund-Level PE

57.08x

~30-35x

~22-26x

Revenue Growth (wtd. avg.)

N/A

+40-60%

+20-30%

EPS Growth (top holdings)

N/A

+50-100%+

+25-40%

Price/Sales Ratio

High

Moderating

Normalizing

Sector PEG Ratio

>2.0x

~1.0-1.2x

<1.0x

Analysis: While the trailing PE appears stretched, the forward earnings picture justifies much of the premium. Semiconductor companies in SOXX are experiencing a historic earnings growth cycle driven by AI infrastructure buildout, memory pricing recovery, and custom silicon demand.

9.  FAIR VALUE ESTIMATE — END OF 2026

Methodology: Weighted blend of earnings growth trajectory, sector PE normalization, and price-to-earnings expansion/contraction scenarios.

Scenario

Key Assumptions

Est. SOXX Price (EOY 2026)

Return from Current

Bull Case (★)

AI capex continues; earnings beat; PE stays 45-50x

$750 – $850

+27% to +44%

Base Case

Moderate AI growth; earnings inline; PE compresses to 35-40x

$580 – $680

-2% to +15%

Bear Case

AI spending slowdown; memory oversupply; PE 25-30x

$350 – $450

-41% to -24%

★ Base Case Target: $620 – $660 | Current Price: $591.24 | Implied Upside: ~5–12%

The fund is near fair value in the base case. Given the exceptional 169% trailing return, risk/reward is balanced. Further upside depends heavily on sustained AI infrastructure spending and no major macro/geopolitical disruptions.

10.  KEY RISKS & CATALYSTS

Key Risks:

Risk

Impact Level

Description

AI Capex Slowdown

Very High

Hyperscaler spending cuts would immediately hit NVDA, AMD, MU revenues

Memory Oversupply

High

DRAM/NAND pricing can collapse rapidly if demand slows (MU = 11.5% of fund)

US-China Export Controls

High

Chip bans harm AMD, NVDA, QCOM significantly

Taiwan Geopolitical Risk

Medium-High

TSMC disruption would impact entire global semiconductor supply

Valuation Compression

Medium

If interest rates rise, high-PE semis de-rate quickly

Earnings Disappointment

Medium

Any miss from top holdings could trigger sharp selloff

Concentration Risk

Medium

MU alone = 11.55% — one bad earnings = large fund impact

Key Catalysts:

Catalyst

Impact Level

Description

AI Infrastructure Super-Cycle

Very High

Sustained $500B+ annual AI capex drives chip demand for years

HBM Memory Shortage

High

Micron & SK Hynix supply constrained — pricing power exceptional

Custom Silicon Boom

High

Hyperscalers building own chips (MRVL, AVGO) — massive TAM expansion

Sovereign AI Investments

Medium

Nations building domestic AI capacity — broad chip demand

Automotive & Edge AI

Medium

QCOM, NXP benefit from AI at the edge and automotive semiconductor growth

US CHIPS Act Benefits

Medium

Intel, Micron, TSMC US fabs — long-term domestic supply chain

Rate Cuts

Medium

Fed easing would re-rate high-growth semis upward

11.  SUMMARY SCORECARD

Category

Score (1-10)

Comment

Revenue Growth Potential

10/10

Exceptional — AI-driven semiconductor supercycle

Earnings Quality

8/10

Strong but cyclical; memory volatile

Valuation (Current)

5/10

Rich trailing PE; forward PE more reasonable

Dividend Income

2/10

Minimal — growth fund, not income

Risk/Volatility

4/10

Very high beta; sector-concentrated; large drawdown risk

Momentum

10/10

Up 169% 1-year; one of market’s best performers

Management & Costs

7/10

BlackRock quality; 0.34% ER acceptable for sector ETF

Geopolitical Exposure

5/10

Taiwan/China risk is material

★ OVERALL RATING

7.5/10

High-conviction sector ETF for AI-cycle investors. Best for growth-oriented, risk-tolerant portfolios.

INVESTMENT SUMMARY

SOXX offers unmatched exposure to the AI semiconductor revolution. With trailing 1-year returns of 169%, it has already captured enormous value. The bull case remains intact if AI infrastructure spending continues at its current pace, but investors should be aware of: (1) extreme valuation, (2) cyclicality of memory chips, and (3) geopolitical tail risks. Best suited as a high-conviction tactical allocation (10-20% of portfolio) for investors with a 3-5 year horizon who can tolerate significant short-term volatility. The fund is not suitable as a core holding due to its single-sector concentration.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All data as of June 17, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Disclaimer

The user Yaser has a position in NasdaqGM:SOXX. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value vs Share Price

US$640
vs US$522.3518.4% undervalued intrinsic discount

Calculation method

Forward EPS model: Starting from trailing EPS of $10.36 (Price $591 ÷ PE 57x), applying a weighted average earnings growth of +45% for 2026 and +23% for 2027 across top holdings (MU, AMD, MRVL, NVDA, AVGO, INTC weighted by fund allocation), yielding a 2027E EPS of $18.55. Applying a fair forward PE of 30x (semiconductor historical mid-cycle 28–35x, plus 3x AI structural premium, minus hype compression vs. today's 57x). Base price: $556. Adding $1.60 annual dividend and a 16% sector sentiment premium for a confirmed AI infrastructure cycle. Cross-checked against a 5.0x forward P/S multiple on 2027E revenues (+25% growth), yielding ~$545. Blended fair value: $640 by EOY 2027.

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Company analysis

Adequate balance sheet with acceptable track record.

Market capUS$40.5b
PB2.0x
Estimated GrowthN/A
Dividend Yield0.3%
Full analysis

CEO & management

N/A
CEO
14.6yrs
CEO Tenure

An exchange traded fund launched by BlackRock, Inc.