Experiential Entertainment And Food Monetization Will Support Fair Value Despite Debt And Seasonal Risks

Catalysts

About Lucky Strike Entertainment

Lucky Strike Entertainment operates bowling centered and family entertainment venues, including branded Lucky Strike locations, water parks, and amusement parks across the United States.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Although demand for out of home experiences remains healthy and Lucky Strike is seeing steady retail and league growth, a slower than expected recovery in higher margin corporate events, particularly in technology heavy regions like California and Washington, could cap overall revenue growth and limit the operating leverage needed to expand earnings.
• While the rebrand to Lucky Strike is driving substantially higher food and beverage attachment and strong results at flagship locations, execution risk in scaling this concept to 200 locations by 2026 may pressure conversion costs and delay the anticipated lift in net margins if consumer response is uneven across markets.
• Despite strong traction in new food and beverage programs and bundled offers such as the Pizza and Picture combo, the company heavy reliance on upselling existing guests rather than accelerating new traffic growth could eventually constrain same store sales and temper EBITDA expansion if discretionary spending on premium in venue dining moderates.
• Although the expansion into seasonal water parks and family entertainment centers broadens the guest base and introduces new cross property pass opportunities, the highly concentrated 100 day revenue window and labor intensive model could add earnings volatility and compress margins during weaker summer seasons.
• While the recent refinancing has extended debt maturities to 2032, the sizeable interest burden from 1.7 billion of debt at a 7 percent cost of capital, combined with incremental real estate investments, may limit flexibility to pursue additional high return projects and could constrain net income and free cash flow growth if revenue underperforms expectations.

Assumptions

This narrative explores a more pessimistic perspective on Lucky Strike Entertainment compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bearish cohort of analysts. How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• The bearish analysts are assuming Lucky Strike Entertainment's revenue will grow by 4.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bearish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -4.4% today to 2.5% in 3 years time.
• The bearish analysts expect earnings to reach $35.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.21) by about December 2028, up from $-54.8 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as $98.0 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bearish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 47.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from -23.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Hospitality industry at 24.6x.
• The bearish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.35% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.5%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• The strong long-term shift toward experiential, out of home entertainment, reflected in sustained growth in walk in retail, leagues, and mid single digit October retail comps, could accelerate faster than expected and drive higher than anticipated revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, pushing the share price meaningfully higher as operating leverage improves net margins and earnings.
• Structural gains in food and beverage monetization, such as food revenue growing 10 percent without price increases, 5 consecutive weeks of all time high league food and beverage sales, and highly successful bundled offers like the Pizza and Picture combo, may continue to scale across more locations and formats, materially lifting average spend per guest, net margins, and overall earnings over time.
• The multi year Lucky Strike rebrand and continued portfolio mix shift toward higher end, experiential venues, which already deliver roughly 50 percent higher food and beverage to bowling revenue ratios and double digit retail uplifts at flagship locations like Times Square, could structurally reset unit economics above current market expectations, driving sustained revenue growth, expanding margins, and a higher earnings base.
• Secular growth and cross property synergies in seasonal attractions, including water parks and family entertainment centers that generate all revenue in roughly 100 days but are seeing strong consumer response to premium value, improved food programs, and alcohol introduction, could create a powerful seasonal cash engine that enhances free cash flow, reduces perceived earnings volatility, and supports a higher valuation over the long term.
• Management's increasing focus on capital efficiency, disciplined CapEx below prior guidance levels, and prioritization of high return internal projects over incremental M&A, combined with the strategic real estate acquisitions and extended debt maturities to 2032, may steadily improve free cash flow generation and balance sheet quality, which could re rate the equity upward as investors gain confidence in long term earnings and cash flow growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The assumed bearish price target for Lucky Strike Entertainment is $9.0, which represents up to two standard deviations below the consensus price target of $13.25. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Lucky Strike Entertainment's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the more bearish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $18.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $9.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the more bearish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.4 billion, earnings will come to $35.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 47.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.5%.
  
• Given the current share price of $9.04, the analyst price target of $9.0 is 0.4% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.