Digital Kitchens And New Locations Will Improve Future Prospects For Casual Dining Chain

Key Takeaways

• Expansion through new locations and franchise acquisitions aims to boost revenue and market presence.
  
• Digital kitchen transition and tech investments target operational efficiency and enhanced guest experience to support sales growth.
  
• Rising labor costs, capital expenditures, beef inflation, and competitive pressures could compress Texas Roadhouse's margins and impact earnings without sufficient growth or operational efficiencies.

Catalysts

Operates casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally.

• The company's expansion plan involves the opening of approximately 30 new company-owned restaurants in 2025 and acquiring 13 franchise restaurants, which is expected to enhance revenue through increased capacity and market presence.
  
• The transition to digital kitchens, expected to be completed by the end of 2025, aims to improve operational efficiency, potentially increasing net margins through better labor productivity and reduced food waste.
  
• Menu price adjustments with less than 1% increase, alongside maintaining a strong value proposition, are likely to sustain traffic levels and support revenue growth without negatively impacting customer perception.
  
• The company anticipates relatively flat commodity prices in the near term, which could stabilize or improve net margins by mitigating cost pressures on food and beverage expenses.
  
• Continuous investment in technology and restaurant guest management systems is expected to further optimize operational processes, contributing to improved earnings by enhancing the guest experience and supporting sales growth.

Texas Roadhouse Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Texas Roadhouse's revenue will grow by 9.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.7% today to 8.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $569.8 million (and earnings per share of $8.64) by about December 2027, up from $390.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 27.8x on those 2027 earnings, down from 32.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Hospitality industry at 23.6x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.39% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.44%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Texas Roadhouse Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Rising labor costs are expected, with wage inflation forecasted between 4% to 5%, which may compress net margins if not offset by sufficient revenue growth or price increases.
  
• The company anticipates higher capital expenditures in 2025, largely to maintain and expand its existing restaurant network, which could strain cash flows and impact net earnings if returns don't align with investment levels.
  
• The uncertain outlook on beef inflation, a significant component of food costs, poses a potential risk to controlling food and beverage expenses, which could reduce restaurant margins if beef prices increase unexpectedly.
  
• Continued emphasis on operational expansion, including potential acquisition of franchise restaurants, introduces execution risk and could impact earnings if integration doesn't succeed as planned or if operational efficiencies aren't realized.
  
• Competitive pressures within the casual dining sector could necessitate increased promotional activity or price discounting, which may impact revenue growth and compress net margins if customer traffic doesn't increase to offset these strategies.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $196.8 for Texas Roadhouse based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $242.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $158.21.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $6.7 billion, earnings will come to $569.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 27.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.4%.
• Given the current share price of $186.92, the analyst's price target of $196.8 is 5.0% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.