DUOL: User Growth Concerns Will Fade As Engagement Increases In Key Markets

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

25 Aug 24

Updated

01 Dec 25

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

-49.2%

7D

-1.6%

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1Y

-49.2%

7D

-1.6%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 2 10:10 PM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$271.0531.6% undervalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 01 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 6.47%

DUOL: Long-Term User Growth Focus Will Drive Renewed Interest Ahead

Duolingo's fair value estimate has been revised downward from $289.81 to $271.05 as analysts reacted to a series of price target reductions. These adjustments were driven by concerns over the company's shifting focus toward long-term user growth instead of prioritizing near-term monetization and profitability.

Shared on 17 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 35%

DUOL: Focus On Long-Term User Engagement Will Drive Sustained Platform Expansion

Duolingo’s fair value estimate has been sharply reduced from approximately $443 to $290 per share. Analysts point to a combination of lower growth expectations and a strategic pivot toward long-term user engagement over immediate profitability.

Shared on 01 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 1.45%

Duolingo's analyst price target has been lowered by $6.50 to $442.74 per share. Analysts cite ongoing concerns over user growth and recent valuation adjustments, even as revenue continues to grow.

Shared on 17 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 0.55%

Analysts have slightly trimmed Duolingo's fair value estimate by $2.50, as modest adjustments to user growth expectations and continued competitive risks are tempering near-term optimism for the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst reviews of Duolingo reflect a balanced mix of optimism about the company's product strengths and ongoing concerns related to user growth and competition.

Shared on 03 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 1.09%

Duolingo's analyst fair value estimate has been slightly reduced by approximately $5 to $451.74, as analysts cite ongoing concerns about slower user growth and increased competition, which are impacting future performance expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst research highlights a mix of cautious sentiment and continued confidence in Duolingo's long-term prospects, focusing on user growth trends, competitive risks, and valuation concerns.

Shared on 05 Sep 25

Fair value Decreased 6.74%

Duolingo’s consensus price target was modestly reduced to $478.65 as analysts cite weaker-than-expected user growth trends, persistent competition risks, and recent social media setbacks, partially offset by confidence in the company’s growth prospects beyond language learning. Analyst Commentary Decelerating user growth and indications that active users and subscribers are trending below consensus estimates have led bearish analysts to reduce targets and downgrade ratings.

Shared on 07 May 25

Fair value Increased 21%

Shared on 30 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.89%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 23 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 17 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.46%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.76%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 8.11%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 0.25%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 10 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 24%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 30.0% to 26.7% and increased profit margin from 17.9% to 20.0%.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$271.05

31.6% undervalued

Future estimation in

% p.a.

0

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

18.31%

Consumer Services revenue growth rate

0.34%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

7.10%

Calculation

US$316.36m

Earnings '28

x

51.57x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$16.32b

Market Cap '28

US$16.32b

Market Cap '28

/

49.31m

No. shares '28

=

US$330.87

Share Price '28

US$330.87 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 7.10% p.a.

=

US$269.34

Fair Value '25