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Published
15 Apr 25
Updated
25 Aug 26
Views
157
Not Invested
Dollar GeneralDG
DG logo
Fair Value
US$95.44
Share price25 Aug
US$130.8937.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
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1Y19.33%
7D6.61%

Underperforming Store Closures And Remodel Projects Will Shape Retail Future

AN
AnalystLowTarget
AnalystLowTarget

Analyst Low Target compiles bearish analysts opinions to create narratives which represent one standard deviation below the consensus price target, using forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls.

Published
15 Apr 25
Updated
25 Aug 26
Views
157
Not Invested
Fair ValueUS$95.44
Share priceUS$130.89
37.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
Narrative
Updates11

Shared on 25 Aug 26

Fair value Increased 2.80%

DG: Lower Future P/E Will Limit Upside Despite Raised Earnings Guidance

Dollar General raises its outlook for sales and earnings, but the expected share valuation later on is set lower, which could cap how much the stock can rise even if business results improve. The latest update also tweaks key assumptions like growth, profitability, and the return investors demand.
Read more
0 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Shared on 15 Jun 26

Fair value Decreased 18%

DG: Lower Assumed Future P/E Will Curb Upside Despite Earnings Momentum

Dollar General just posts stronger sales and profit and raises its outlook, while delivery growth looks set to get another boost from a planned subscription test. Even so, the bar for what the stock is worth drops as expectations shift toward a lower market payoff for future earnings.
Read more
9 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Shared on 14 May 26

Fair value Decreased 2.55%

DG: New CEO Transition And 2027 EPS Outlook Will Support Upside Potential

Dollar General adds new low-priced home and kitchen brands to pull shoppers in, while also laying out a planned CEO handover and a clearer earnings outlook for the next fiscal year. The company pauses share buybacks for now, and the updated outlook leads analysts to slightly lower what they think the business is worth.
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8 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Shared on 14 Apr 26

DG: Leadership Change And 2026 EPS Outlook Will Shape Fairly Balanced Risk

Analysts have kept Dollar General's fair value estimate effectively unchanged at about $116.63. This reflects only very small adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions.
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5 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Shared on 31 Mar 26

Fair value Increased 12%

DG: Leadership Transition And EPS Guidance Will Frame Fairly Valued Multiple Risk

Analysts have revised their Dollar General price target to $116.63 from $103.80, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. These changes collectively point to a different risk and valuation profile for the shares.
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2 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Shared on 16 Feb 26

Fair value Increased 3.23%

DG: Higher EPS Guidance And Completed Buybacks Will Conceal Ongoing Multiple Risk

Analysts have lifted their price target on Dollar General from about $100.54 to roughly $103.80, citing updated assumptions around slightly higher projected revenue growth, profit margins, a modestly lower discount rate, and a small adjustment to the expected future P/E multiple. What's in the News Dollar General reported that from August 2, 2025 to November 1, 2025 it did not repurchase any shares, and that under the buyback announced on September 5, 2012 it has completed the repurchase of 123,531,571 shares, representing 45.04% of shares for a total of US$14,618.08m (Key Developments).
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9 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Shared on 19 Jan 26

Fair value Increased 1.84%

DG: Higher Guidance And Buybacks Will Mask Prolonged Margin And Multiple Pressure

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Dollar General to US$100.54 from about US$98.73, citing slightly higher assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and future P/E. What's in the News Dollar General updated its long running share repurchase program, reporting that between August 2, 2025 and November 1, 2025 it bought back 0 shares for US$0.
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8 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Shared on 05 Jan 26

Fair value Increased 5.55%

DG: Earnings Outlook Will Mask Longer-Term Margin And Multiple Compression

Analysts have raised their price target on Dollar General by approximately 6 dollars to about 99 dollars, reflecting slightly lower discount rate assumptions and improved long term profit margin expectations, despite modestly softer revenue growth and valuation multiples. What's in the News Dollar General completed its long running share repurchase program, retiring approximately 123.5 million shares, or about 45% of its shares outstanding, for roughly $14.6 billion since the buyback was launched in 2012 (Key Developments).
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13 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Shared on 07 May 25

Fair value Increased 20%
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5 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Shared on 30 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 0.18%
AnalystLowTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.
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4 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Shared on 23 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 15%
AnalystLowTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.
Read more
1 viewusers have viewed this narrative update

Fair Value vs Share Price

US$95.44
vs US$130.8937.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
PastFuture048b2015201820212024202620272029Revenue US$48.2bEarnings US$1.8b
3.8%
Revenue growth
3.7%
Profit margin

Recent News & Updates

No updates

Recent updates

No updates

Stay ahead on Dollar General

  • Fair value estimate changes
  • Narrative and analyst updates
  • Key company announcements

Company analysis

Undervalued with excellent balance sheet and pays a dividend.

Market capUS$28.9b
PB3.1x
Estimated Growth3.9%
Dividend Yield1.8%
Full analysis

CEO & management

Todd Vasos
CEO
4.2yrs
CEO Tenure

A discount retailer, provides various merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States.

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