The Expected US Housing Recovery May Help Appliance Industry Face Economic Headwinds

Key Takeaways

• Anticipated housing market recovery and new product launches aim to boost Whirlpool's market position and drive future revenue growth.
  
• Strategic cost measures and capital allocation improvements are expected to enhance margins and provide financial flexibility for growth initiatives.
  
• Weak consumer demand, economic issues, and competition across key markets could result in decreased revenues, compressed margins, and earnings challenges for Whirlpool.

Catalysts

Manufactures and markets home appliances and related products and services in the North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Asia.

• Whirlpool anticipates benefiting from an eventual multiyear U.S. housing market recovery, which is expected to boost revenues due to strong underlying housing fundamentals and a large undersupply of housing units.
  
• The implementation of significant cost takeout measures, including organizational simplification, is projected to enhance net margins and deliver approximately $300 million in savings globally for the full year.
  
• New product launches, particularly within North America, such as innovative appliances in the kitchen and laundry categories, aim to strengthen Whirlpool's market position and improve price/mix, potentially driving future revenue growth.
  
• The gradual improvement of discretionary demand, post-election cycle, and consumer sentiment could support future revenue and margin expansion as the macroeconomic environment stabilizes.
  
• Whirlpool's strategic capital allocation, including reducing debt levels and enhanced free cash flow from non-recurring cash outflows in Europe in 2024, is expected to improve earnings by providing more financial flexibility to invest in growth initiatives.

Whirlpool Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Whirlpool's revenue will decrease by -0.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.2% today to 5.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $956.6 million (and earnings per share of $17.62) by about December 2027, up from $560.0 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.5x on those 2027 earnings, down from 12.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Consumer Durables industry at 11.8x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.51% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.86%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Whirlpool Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Low consumer confidence and weak discretionary demand in the U.S. could lead to decreased revenues due to fewer high-margin purchases and a focus on lower-margin replacement-driven products.
  
• Constrained U.S. housing market, characterized by elevated mortgage rates and historically low existing home sales, may continue to weaken demand for new appliances, impacting Whirlpool’s revenues and earnings.
  
• Currency fluctuations, including the weakening of the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, could negatively impact earnings by reducing reported revenues and margins in those regions.
  
• Weak macroeconomic environment in Europe and integration challenges related to the European transaction could lead to negative impacts on margins and overall earnings.
  
• Competition and industry softness in the U.S. small appliances market, despite new product launches, may hinder net sales growth and lead to increased marketing investments that compress margins.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $111.15 for Whirlpool based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $137.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $74.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $17.4 billion, earnings will come to $956.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.9%.
• Given the current share price of $124.37, the analyst's price target of $111.15 is 11.9% lower. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to improve, they seem to believe the market's expectations are too high.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.