Last Update 07 Dec 25

VFC: Prolonged Brand Weakness Is Expected To Cap Returns Through 2026

The analyst price target for V.F. has inched higher, rising to about $16 from roughly $15.50, as analysts modestly reward incremental progress and asset sales while remaining cautious about the pace of a Vans turnaround and the durability of earnings growth.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a cautiously balanced stance on V.F., with modest price target increases offset by ratings downgrades and ongoing skepticism around the Vans turnaround. Most firms are recognizing incremental balance sheet improvement and asset sale execution, while still discounting the shares for operational risk and uncertain earnings power.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts are raising price targets into the mid-teens to around $20, citing improved execution, progress on portfolio simplification, and a stronger balance sheet following the Dickies divestiture.
Some see upside to near term revenue versus consensus, driven by resilient performance at The North Face and Timberland, which helps underpin valuation even as Vans underperforms.
There is a view that early traction at Vans and management engagement are starting to show, supporting an argument that current multiples already discount much of the brand risk.
Higher target prices from previously more constructive voices imply that, if the Vans inflection materializes within the next one to two years, the risk reward could skew favorably from current levels.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts emphasize that Vans trends remain negative in the high single digit decline range, with weakness expected to persist through at least the next quarter, limiting confidence in a near term growth inflection.
Several firms maintain Neutral or Underperform ratings even as they lift targets slightly, arguing that the share price now embeds a more balanced risk reward after the recent rally.
There is limited conviction that management can deliver a durable turnaround at Vans in the near term, keeping pressure on margin recovery assumptions and constraining upside to earnings estimates.
Some research notes highlight that a sustained move higher in the stock will likely require clear evidence of accelerating fundamentals, which is generally viewed as at least a year away, justifying a discount to historical valuation multiples.

What's in the News

V.F. Corporation issued revenue guidance for the third quarter of 2026, expecting revenue to decline between 3% and 1% versus the prior year, signaling continued top line pressure as turnaround actions weigh on growth (corporate guidance).
The company reported that between June 29, 2025 and September 27, 2025, it repurchased no additional shares, while confirming completion of its long running buyback program with 36,028,885 shares repurchased for $2,513 million since March 2017 (buyback tranche update).
A class action lawsuit, Sharon Brenton v. V.F. Corporation et al., was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Colorado, alleging that investors were misled about the true scope of reset actions needed to restore Vans to growth. The stock dropped about 15.8% on May 21, 2025 after the company disclosed a sharper Vans revenue decline and ongoing weakness (lawsuits and legal issues).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at approximately $16.05 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value assessment.
The Discount Rate has fallen modestly to about 10.9 percent from roughly 11.5 percent, reflecting a slightly lower perceived risk profile.
Revenue Growth is effectively unchanged at about 2.3 percent annually, signaling a stable medium term top line outlook.
The Net Profit Margin is essentially flat at roughly 5.5 percent, implying no material change to long run profitability assumptions.
The Future P/E has edged down slightly to about 15.3x from roughly 15.5x, suggesting a marginally lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Focus on premiumization, digital sales, and product innovation is driving higher margins, deeper customer engagement, and sustainable long-term growth.
Portfolio streamlining, supply chain improvements, and international expansion support stronger earnings, cash flow, and reduced exposure to struggling legacy brands.
Declining brand performance, execution risks, tariff pressures, high leverage, and uncertain consumer demand all threaten profitability and limit V.F.'s ability to invest for future growth.

Catalysts

About V.F

Offers branded apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, and children in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The strategic focus on expanding higher-margin channels, including direct-to-consumer and e-commerce, is beginning to drive improved gross margins and deeper customer engagement-expected to lift both revenue growth and net margins over time as V.F. capitalizes on the sustained consumer shift toward digital and premium shopping experiences.
V.F. is leveraging the accelerated global demand for athleisure, technical, and outdoor apparel, evidenced by strong performance from brands like The North Face, Timberland, and Altra, and investing in product innovation and premiumization-setting the stage for long-term, top-line growth and premium pricing opportunities.
Executing a broad portfolio reset-consolidating around high-potential brands and optimizing store network-should lead to a structurally leaner cost base and higher-quality revenues, supporting increased operating income and improved earnings despite legacy pressures from struggling banners like Vans.
The company's supply chain and inventory transformation is directly reducing markdowns and discounts, which, when combined with improved inventory quality and more responsive merchandising, is expected to drive further margin expansion and stronger free cash flow generation.
Investments in international markets, particularly Asia-Pacific, where middle-class growth and appetite for branded goods remain strong, position V.F. to capture incremental revenues and diversify geographic risk, magnifying the earnings impact as global discretionary spending power grows.

V.F Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming V.F's revenue will grow by 2.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 1.1% today to 5.6% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $571.3 million (and earnings per share of $1.47) by about September 2028, up from $104.9 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $641.8 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $393 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.4x on those 2028 earnings, down from 55.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Luxury industry at 20.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.33% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.16%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

V.F Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent double-digit revenue declines at Vans, the largest brand in V.F.'s portfolio, highlight ongoing brand equity and innovation challenges, risking prolonged revenue stagnation and drag on overall company earnings.
Heavy reliance on turnaround execution and optimistic premiumization opportunities at key brands (e.g., North Face, Timberland, Vans) exposes V.F. to execution risk if new products or marketing strategies fail to translate into sustainable growth, impacting long-term revenue and margin expansion.
The company faces significant tariff headwinds ($250–$270 million annualized impact), with uncertainty around the timing and effectiveness of cost mitigation, pricing actions, and elasticity effects, increasing the risk of gross margin pressure and potential volume declines in the medium term.
Elevated debt levels and higher leverage (currently over 4x, with a target of 2.5x by 2028) continue to constrain financial flexibility, making future investments in growth, innovation, or shareholder returns more challenging if cash flow improvements do not materialize as planned.
Industry-wide inventory and wholesale demand caution, especially amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions and shifting fashion/lifestyle trends, amplify the risk of overstocking, forced discounting, and margin erosion-ultimately threatening profitability and future earnings power.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $15.19 for V.F based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $40.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $10.3 billion, earnings will come to $571.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.2%.
Given the current share price of $14.82, the analyst price target of $15.19 is 2.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Weigh V.F. Corporation Outlook Amid Price Target Increase and Ongoing Brand Challenges