Last Update 21 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 3.06%

TPR: Rising Price Views And Buybacks Will Support Measured Long Term Upside

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Tapestry, reflecting an improved fair value estimate of approximately $125 per share as they factor in stronger revenue growth, slightly higher profit margins, and updated retail insights from recent luxury sector conferences.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts highlight that the latest round of price target increases, including a move to $148 per share from JPMorgan, signals growing confidence in Tapestry's ability to compound earnings through both revenue growth and disciplined margin management.

Updated fieldwork from recent luxury and brands conferences, as well as stronger than expected alternative data for the fiscal first quarter, are reinforcing the view that Tapestry can outperform prior top line expectations while maintaining brand heat at Coach and across the broader portfolio.

Bullish Takeaways

Higher price targets in the $135 to $148 range suggest upside to current valuation as analysts factor in faster revenue growth and more resilient demand in key luxury categories.
Stronger fiscal Q1 alternative data points are seen as evidence of robust consumer engagement and effective marketing execution, supporting confidence in near term earnings beats.
Insights from the Global Luxury and Brands Conference indicate Tapestry is well positioned versus peers on brand relevance and pricing power, which could sustain healthy gross margins.
Retention of positive ratings alongside target hikes signals conviction that management can execute through a more challenging macro backdrop while still driving shareholder returns.

Bearish Takeaways

Some bullish analysts are tempering enthusiasm by removing Tapestry from select top pick lists, citing limited near term multiple expansion after the recent share price appreciation.
Valuation is becoming more demanding relative to historic ranges, leaving less margin of safety if growth or margins fall short of elevated expectations.
Tougher comparisons ahead for Coach in North America raise the risk of decelerating growth, which could pressure both sales momentum and investor sentiment.
Execution missteps in key regions or brands during this period of heightened expectations could prompt target cuts and a reassessment of the premium embedded in current forecasts.

What's in the News

Tapestry completed a buyback tranche between September 10 and September 30, 2025, repurchasing 2,410,393 shares, or 1.16 percent of shares outstanding, for $261.6 million under the program announced on September 10, 2025 (company buyback update).
The company finalized a larger repurchase program announced on November 14, 2024, cumulatively buying back 28,363,766 shares, or 12.17 percent of shares outstanding, for $2.0 billion, with no additional shares repurchased between June 29 and September 27, 2025 (company buyback update).
Tapestry also completed a separate buyback initiative announced on May 12, 2022, totaling 20,117,986 shares, or 8.62 percent, for $938.31 million, including 2,309,088 shares repurchased between June 29 and September 10, 2025 (company buyback update).
Coach is spotlighting the publication of “BAG MAN: The Story Behind the Improbable Rise of Coach” by Chairman Emeritus and former CEO Lew Frankfort, detailing the brand’s evolution from a $6 million leather goods maker into a $5 billion global business and the “Magic Plus Logic” leadership philosophy that shaped its accessible luxury positioning (product announcement).

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, moving from approximately $121.44 to $125.17 per share, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic valuation.
The Discount Rate has edged down marginally from about 9.08 percent to 9.05 percent, indicating a slightly lower required return in the updated model.
Revenue Growth has increased moderately, from roughly 3.21 percent to 3.59 percent, suggesting a somewhat stronger top line outlook.
Net Profit Margin has improved slightly, rising from about 16.89 percent to 17.13 percent, implying modestly better expected profitability.
The Future P/E has risen only fractionally, from approximately 23.19x to 23.29x, indicating minimal change in the assumed earnings multiple.

Expanding younger customer base and international markets is driving long-term revenue growth and greater diversification.
Investments in digital, product innovation, and operational efficiencies are supporting higher margins and sustained earnings growth.
Brand underperformance, tariff pressures, and reduced diversification heighten revenue and margin risks, while heavy investment and shifting consumer trends threaten sustainable growth.

Catalysts

About Tapestry

Provides accessories and lifestyle brand products in North America, Greater China, rest of Asia, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Rapid growth in Coach's customer base, particularly among younger Gen Z and millennial segments across North America, China, and Europe, is anticipated to drive sustained long-term revenue growth as these cohorts enter higher spending years and show above-average retention rates.
Continued expansion in high-growth international markets, notably Greater China and Europe, combined with a still-low penetration relative to the opportunity, positions Tapestry to accelerate international sales and diversify revenue streams going forward.
Ongoing investments in digital infrastructure, omnichannel capabilities, and data-driven customer engagement are expected to enable margin expansion and direct-to-consumer growth, enhancing both revenue and net margins long-term.
Strong brand equity and product innovation (e.g., elevated AUR, full-price selling, blockbuster product launches) are delivering higher average selling prices and gross margin expansion, with further upside as premiumization and experiential demand strengthen globally.
Scale benefits from simplification of the portfolio, supply chain agility, and disciplined SG&A leverage-even as marketing investment rises-are likely to support net margin improvement and robust earnings growth as Tapestry capitalizes on industry consolidation and operational efficiencies.

Tapestry Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Tapestry's revenue will grow by 3.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 2.6% today to 17.5% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.4 billion (and earnings per share of $6.83) by about September 2028, up from $183.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.0x on those 2028 earnings, down from 119.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Luxury industry at 19.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.81%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Tapestry Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The $850 million noncash impairment charge related to Kate Spade, driven by underperformance, outsized U.S. exposure, and the outsized impact of tariffs, signals significant long-term brand turnaround risk and may weigh on future revenue and earnings until the brand regains sustainable growth.
Persistent and escalating tariff and duty headwinds-including the earlier-than-expected end of de minimis exemptions-represent a $160 million profitability drag in fiscal 2026 and could structurally impair gross and operating margins if mitigation strategies are delayed or insufficient.
Heavy investments in marketing, omnichannel infrastructure, and physical store expansion are pressuring SG&A, and reliance on continued new customer acquisition (especially among Gen Z) exposes Tapestry to risks if younger consumers shift preferences toward digital-native or more sustainable/ethical brands-threatening revenue growth and margin improvement.
The recent divestiture of Stuart Weitzman reduces brand diversification, increasing dependency on Coach's outperformance; if Coach's current "brand heat" and pricing power wane, there will be an outsized negative impact on total company revenue and earnings.
Strategic expansion of brick-and-mortar stores in North America, despite current positive trends, heightens long-term operational leverage risk amid secular shifts toward e-commerce, making Tapestry more vulnerable to declines in physical store foot traffic and potential margin compression.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $114.556 for Tapestry based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $139.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $66.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.8 billion, earnings will come to $1.4 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.8%.
Given the current share price of $105.18, the analyst price target of $114.56 is 8.2% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

TPR: Upcoming Share Buybacks And Dividend Hike Will Drive Long-Term Upside