TPR: Rising Price Views And Buybacks Will Support Measured Long Term Upside

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Tapestry, reflecting an improved fair value estimate of approximately $125 per share as they factor in stronger revenue growth, slightly higher profit margins, and updated retail insights from recent luxury sector conferences.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts highlight that the latest round of price target increases, including a move to $148 per share from JPMorgan, signals growing confidence in Tapestry's ability to compound earnings through both revenue growth and disciplined margin management.

Updated fieldwork from recent luxury and brands conferences, as well as stronger than expected alternative data for the fiscal first quarter, are reinforcing the view that Tapestry can outperform prior top line expectations while maintaining brand heat at Coach and across the broader portfolio.

Bullish Takeaways

• Higher price targets in the $135 to $148 range suggest upside to current valuation as analysts factor in faster revenue growth and more resilient demand in key luxury categories.
• Stronger fiscal Q1 alternative data points are seen as evidence of robust consumer engagement and effective marketing execution, supporting confidence in near term earnings beats.
• Insights from the Global Luxury and Brands Conference indicate Tapestry is well positioned versus peers on brand relevance and pricing power, which could sustain healthy gross margins.
• Retention of positive ratings alongside target hikes signals conviction that management can execute through a more challenging macro backdrop while still driving shareholder returns.

Bearish Takeaways

• Some bullish analysts are tempering enthusiasm by removing Tapestry from select top pick lists, citing limited near term multiple expansion after the recent share price appreciation.
• Valuation is becoming more demanding relative to historic ranges, leaving less margin of safety if growth or margins fall short of elevated expectations.
• Tougher comparisons ahead for Coach in North America raise the risk of decelerating growth, which could pressure both sales momentum and investor sentiment.
• Execution missteps in key regions or brands during this period of heightened expectations could prompt target cuts and a reassessment of the premium embedded in current forecasts.

What's in the News

• Tapestry completed a buyback tranche between September 10 and September 30, 2025, repurchasing 2,410,393 shares, or 1.16 percent of shares outstanding, for $261.6 million under the program announced on September 10, 2025 (company buyback update).
• The company finalized a larger repurchase program announced on November 14, 2024, cumulatively buying back 28,363,766 shares, or 12.17 percent of shares outstanding, for $2.0 billion, with no additional shares repurchased between June 29 and September 27, 2025 (company buyback update).
• Tapestry also completed a separate buyback initiative announced on May 12, 2022, totaling 20,117,986 shares, or 8.62 percent, for $938.31 million, including 2,309,088 shares repurchased between June 29 and September 10, 2025 (company buyback update).
• Coach is spotlighting the publication of “BAG MAN: The Story Behind the Improbable Rise of Coach” by Chairman Emeritus and former CEO Lew Frankfort, detailing the brand’s evolution from a $6 million leather goods maker into a $5 billion global business and the “Magic Plus Logic” leadership philosophy that shaped its accessible luxury positioning (product announcement).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, moving from approximately $121.44 to $125.17 per share, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic valuation.
• The Discount Rate has edged down marginally from about 9.08 percent to 9.05 percent, indicating a slightly lower required return in the updated model.
• Revenue Growth has increased moderately, from roughly 3.21 percent to 3.59 percent, suggesting a somewhat stronger top line outlook.
• Net Profit Margin has improved slightly, rising from about 16.89 percent to 17.13 percent, implying modestly better expected profitability.
• The Future P/E has risen only fractionally, from approximately 23.19x to 23.29x, indicating minimal change in the assumed earnings multiple.