Last Update 07 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 0.20%

TPR: Extended Buybacks And Fiscal 2028 Plan Will Support Measured Upside

Tapestry's analyst price target has been nudged higher, with our fair value estimate moving modestly to about $121. Analysts cite strengthened long term earnings visibility and brand momentum following recent investor events and upward revisions to Street targets across major firms.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research points to a broadly constructive stance on Tapestry, with a series of upward price target revisions and generally positive tones following investor and analyst events. While views are not uniform, the balance of commentary leans toward confidence in the multiyear earnings algorithm and brand momentum, particularly at Coach.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that investor day presentations and luxury conferences reinforced confidence in upside to consensus EPS forecasts over the next 12 months and beyond, supporting higher valuation multiples.
Several notes cite ongoing brand momentum and favorable secular tailwinds in handbags, suggesting that Tapestry can sustain above peer top line growth while maintaining margin discipline.
New long term financial targets through fiscal 2028, including guidance for low teens total shareholder return from fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2028, are viewed as achievable, with upside potential if execution on store expansion, digital and buybacks exceeds plan.
Some bullish analysts emphasize that the stock should grind higher as execution de risks the plan, buybacks accelerate EPS growth and tariff resilience limits downside to earnings, even in a choppier macro backdrop.

Bearish Takeaways

More cautious analysts argue that the recent share price appreciation already reflects much of the multiyear growth story, limiting multiple expansion from here despite higher targets.
There is concern that tougher comparisons for Coach in North America could slow momentum, making it harder for Tapestry to consistently exceed near term expectations and defend its premium valuation.
Tariff headwinds remain a risk, with some viewing them as a persistent drag that could offset part of the benefit from store openings and buybacks if trade policy worsens or input costs rise further.
Neutral voices stress the limited near term catalysts, suggesting that even with solid execution, the path higher may be gradual rather than explosive, leaving the stock vulnerable to macro or fashion cycle setbacks.

What's in the News

The Board of Directors has authorized a new share repurchase plan allowing Tapestry to buy back up to $3 billion of common stock through fiscal 2028, funded by free cash flow, with repurchased shares held as authorized but unissued for future corporate use (Buyback Transaction Announcements).
On September 10, 2025, Tapestry formally announced the share repurchase program, reinforcing management's commitment to shareholder returns and long term capital allocation discipline (Buyback Transaction Announcements).
Under the buyback announced on May 12, 2022, Tapestry has completed repurchases totaling 20,117,986 shares, or 8.62 percent of shares outstanding, for approximately $938.31 million as of September 10, 2025 (Buyback Tranche Update).
Under the buyback announced on November 14, 2024, the company has completed repurchases of 28,363,766 shares, representing 12.17 percent of shares outstanding, for $2.0 billion as of September 27, 2025 (Buyback Tranche Update).
Following the new September 10, 2025 authorization, Tapestry repurchased an additional 2,410,393 shares, or 1.16 percent, for $261.6 million by September 30, 2025, marking the first tranche under the latest buyback plan (Buyback Tranche Update).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate edged down slightly to approximately $121.44 from about $121.68 per share, reflecting a modestly less optimistic intrinsic value projection.
Discount Rate decreased marginally to roughly 9.08 percent from about 9.11 percent, implying a slightly lower required return on equity risk.
Revenue Growth was revised down modestly to approximately 3.21 percent from about 3.47 percent annually, signaling a more conservative top line outlook.
Net Profit Margin improved slightly to about 16.89 percent from roughly 16.77 percent, indicating a small expected gain in underlying profitability.
Future P/E ticked down marginally to around 23.19x from approximately 23.26x, suggesting a nearly unchanged valuation multiple on forward earnings.

Expanding younger customer base and international markets is driving long-term revenue growth and greater diversification.
Investments in digital, product innovation, and operational efficiencies are supporting higher margins and sustained earnings growth.
Brand underperformance, tariff pressures, and reduced diversification heighten revenue and margin risks, while heavy investment and shifting consumer trends threaten sustainable growth.

Catalysts

About Tapestry

Provides accessories and lifestyle brand products in North America, Greater China, rest of Asia, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Rapid growth in Coach's customer base, particularly among younger Gen Z and millennial segments across North America, China, and Europe, is anticipated to drive sustained long-term revenue growth as these cohorts enter higher spending years and show above-average retention rates.
Continued expansion in high-growth international markets, notably Greater China and Europe, combined with a still-low penetration relative to the opportunity, positions Tapestry to accelerate international sales and diversify revenue streams going forward.
Ongoing investments in digital infrastructure, omnichannel capabilities, and data-driven customer engagement are expected to enable margin expansion and direct-to-consumer growth, enhancing both revenue and net margins long-term.
Strong brand equity and product innovation (e.g., elevated AUR, full-price selling, blockbuster product launches) are delivering higher average selling prices and gross margin expansion, with further upside as premiumization and experiential demand strengthen globally.
Scale benefits from simplification of the portfolio, supply chain agility, and disciplined SG&A leverage-even as marketing investment rises-are likely to support net margin improvement and robust earnings growth as Tapestry capitalizes on industry consolidation and operational efficiencies.

Tapestry Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Tapestry's revenue will grow by 3.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 2.6% today to 17.5% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.4 billion (and earnings per share of $6.83) by about September 2028, up from $183.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.0x on those 2028 earnings, down from 119.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Luxury industry at 19.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.81%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Tapestry Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The $850 million noncash impairment charge related to Kate Spade, driven by underperformance, outsized U.S. exposure, and the outsized impact of tariffs, signals significant long-term brand turnaround risk and may weigh on future revenue and earnings until the brand regains sustainable growth.
Persistent and escalating tariff and duty headwinds-including the earlier-than-expected end of de minimis exemptions-represent a $160 million profitability drag in fiscal 2026 and could structurally impair gross and operating margins if mitigation strategies are delayed or insufficient.
Heavy investments in marketing, omnichannel infrastructure, and physical store expansion are pressuring SG&A, and reliance on continued new customer acquisition (especially among Gen Z) exposes Tapestry to risks if younger consumers shift preferences toward digital-native or more sustainable/ethical brands-threatening revenue growth and margin improvement.
The recent divestiture of Stuart Weitzman reduces brand diversification, increasing dependency on Coach's outperformance; if Coach's current "brand heat" and pricing power wane, there will be an outsized negative impact on total company revenue and earnings.
Strategic expansion of brick-and-mortar stores in North America, despite current positive trends, heightens long-term operational leverage risk amid secular shifts toward e-commerce, making Tapestry more vulnerable to declines in physical store foot traffic and potential margin compression.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $114.556 for Tapestry based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $139.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $66.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.8 billion, earnings will come to $1.4 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.8%.
Given the current share price of $105.18, the analyst price target of $114.56 is 8.2% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

TPR: Upcoming Share Buybacks And Dividend Hike Will Drive Long-Term Upside