Falling Birth Rates And Pricing Pressure Will Hurt Future Performance

Key Takeaways

• Declining birth rates and limited international growth constrain Carter's future revenue and earnings potential, keeping long-term demand and expansion prospects subdued.
  
• Intensifying competition from e-commerce and fast-fashion, plus cost pressures from tariffs and sustainability efforts, threaten Carter's profit margins and increase earnings volatility.
  
• International expansion, product innovation, supply-chain improvements, and personalized marketing are driving growth, customer acquisition, and operational efficiencies despite domestic market maturation.

Catalysts

Designs, sources, and markets branded childrenswear and related products under the Carter's, OshKosh, Skip Hop, Child of Mine, Just One You, Simple Joys, Little Planet, and other brands in the United States and internationally.

• Persistent declines in U.S. and developed market birth rates present structural headwinds to Carter's future revenue growth, as its core customer base shrinks and limits long-term addressable demand.
  
• The accelerating shift to e-commerce and proliferation of direct-to-consumer, digitally native competitors is expected to intensify pricing pressure and erode Carter's gross and net margins through increased price transparency and customer acquisition costs.
  
• Carter's brand maturity and limited international penetration constrain organic top-line growth, while international expansion remains modest despite stronger growth in markets like Brazil, suggesting forward earnings growth will remain capped.
  
• Heavy reliance on baby and young children's apparel leaves the company exposed to demographic volatility and concentrated demand risk, potentially increasing earnings volatility, especially as fast-fashion competitors expand in this segment.
  
• Heightened focus on cost inflation, tariffs, and sustainability investing (including supply chain re-engineering and higher material costs) is likely to weigh on gross margins and operating income in the medium term, limiting net earnings expansion even if some price increases are realized.

Carter's Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Carter's's revenue will decrease by 0.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 4.7% today to 1.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $39.2 million (and earnings per share of $1.03) by about August 2028, down from $132.5 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 32.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from 7.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Luxury industry at 17.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.83% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.94%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Carter's Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Carter's is expanding its presence in international markets, such as Mexico, Canada, and Brazil, where birth rates are higher and the global middle class is rising; this trend can drive long-term growth in revenue even if domestic markets mature or slow.
  
• The company is seeing sustained momentum in its core baby segment, maintaining or growing market share and reporting double-digit sales growth in Baby for four consecutive quarters, indicating potential for resilient revenue and improved earnings despite cyclical challenges.
  
• Significant investments in product development, supply-chain agility, and merchandising (e.g., removing 3 months from the development calendar, leveraging vendor partnerships to shift sourcing) position Carter's to enhance operating efficiencies and margins over the long term.
  
• New brand launches and innovation in premium and sustainable product categories (e.g., Little Planet, Purely Soft, Otter Avenue) are successfully attracting new, higher-value customers and supporting higher average unit retails (AURs), which can positively impact both top-line growth and gross margin.
  
• The comprehensive loyalty and personalized marketing strategy (leveraging 9 million+ active members and targeted digital initiatives) is improving customer retention, new customer acquisition, and traffic across digital and store channels, laying the foundation for higher lifetime customer value and sustainable earnings expansion.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $24.6 for Carter's based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $28.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $22.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.8 billion, earnings will come to $39.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 32.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.9%.
• Given the current share price of $25.35, the analyst price target of $24.6 is 3.0% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.