Project Gravity And Channel Exits Will Pressure Margins Yet Leave Long-Term Upside Potential

Catalysts

About Traeger

Traeger designs, manufactures and markets wood pellet grills, consumables and accessories for outdoor cooking enthusiasts.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Although Project Gravity is expected to unlock a cumulative $50 million of run rate cost savings, execution risks around restructuring, consulting led initiatives and channel exits could dilute the ultimate benefit and limit the uplift to net margins and EBITDA.
• While shifting new grill SKUs to Vietnam and diversifying away from China may structurally lower tariff exposure over time, reliance on new manufacturing partners introduces potential quality, ramp up and logistics challenges that could pressure gross margin and profitability if transitions slip.
• Although household penetration for wood pellet grills and the installed base driven demand for pellets and accessories support a long runway for replacement and recurring purchases, the elusive replacement cycle and continued consumer sensitivity to high ticket discretionary spend may cap revenue growth and earnings expansion.
• While the decision to exit direct to consumer e-commerce and the Costco roadshow should simplify operations and improve mix, the approximate $60 million of revenue at risk and uncertain recapture through retail partners and distributors could result in a structurally smaller top line and slower EBITDA growth than anticipated.
• Although category innovation and grills priced below $1,000 expand Traeger’s addressable audience and support long term adoption of premium outdoor cooking, persistent trading down, elevated interest rates and promotional intensity across the broader grill market may limit average selling price gains and constrain both revenue and gross margin leverage.

Assumptions

This narrative explores a more pessimistic perspective on Traeger compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bearish cohort of analysts. How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• The bearish analysts are assuming Traeger's revenue will decrease by 1.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bearish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -18.0% today to 4.6% in 3 years time.
• The bearish analysts expect earnings to reach $25.5 million (and earnings per share of $-0.19) by about December 2028, up from $-104.9 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bearish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -1.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Consumer Durables industry at 11.4x.
• The bearish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 4.88% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.5%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• Persistent tariff pressures combined with only partially effective mitigation could keep gross margins structurally below management’s 40.5% to 41.5% target range over time, limiting the upside in net margins and earnings.
• Project Gravity’s heavy reliance on restructuring, consulting led initiatives and channel exits may fail to deliver the full $50 million in run rate savings or may bring greater than expected revenue loss, resulting in a smaller top line without the anticipated uplift to EBITDA and net income.
• Exiting direct to consumer e commerce, shifting to a distributor model in Europe and walking away from approximately $60 million of revenue could weaken Traeger’s direct connection with consumers and reduce brand control, which may dampen long term revenue growth and constrain operating margin expansion.
• The broader grill market remains slightly down with a delayed replacement cycle and continued consumer sensitivity to high ticket discretionary purchases, which could limit volume growth in grills and slow the contribution from higher margin consumables, weighing on overall revenue and earnings growth.
• Traeger’s strategy of driving sub $1,000 grills to expand its addressable audience in a trading down environment may compress average selling prices for longer than expected, restricting gross margin recovery and constraining long term improvements in EBITDA and net profit.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The assumed bearish price target for Traeger is $1.0, which represents up to two standard deviations below the consensus price target of $1.49. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Traeger's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the more bearish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $3.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $1.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the more bearish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $551.1 million, earnings will come to $25.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.5%.
  
• Given the current share price of $0.82, the analyst price target of $1.0 is 17.9% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.