Supply Chain Moves And Launches Will Shape Prospects Despite Risks

Key Takeaways

• Supply chain diversification and production shifts aim to stabilize costs and enhance net margins by mitigating tariff impacts.
  
• Brand acquisitions and innovative product launches are poised to drive revenue growth and boost market share.
  
• Reliance on volatile macroeconomic factors and supply chain disruptions, alongside rising operational costs, create significant uncertainty impacting margins and future earnings projections.

Catalysts

Provides various consumer products in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.

• Helen of Troy's ongoing supply chain diversification efforts, particularly moving production out of China, are expected to mitigate tariff impacts and help stabilize costs, which should positively affect net margins.
  
• The company's focus on re-evaluated SKU prioritization and promotional pricing plans, in partnership with retailers, aims to enhance profitability by emphasizing high-margin, high-demand products, potentially improving net margins.
  
• International market expansion, particularly in non-tariff regions, offers growth opportunities that are anticipated to boost revenue as these markets are not subjected to current tariff pressures.
  
• Helen of Troy's Project Pegasus initiative has been successful in increasing operational efficiency, as seen from the 60 basis point increase in gross margin, creating headroom for further earnings growth as cost reductions continue.
  
• The acquisition and expansion of brands like Olive and June, along with their innovative new product launches such as the Olive and June Gel Mani System and OXO's new Twist and Stack containers, provide potential for revenue growth and market share gains.

Helen of Troy Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Helen of Troy's revenue will grow by 2.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 6.5% today to 3.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $68.9 million (and earnings per share of $3.41) by about May 2028, down from $123.8 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 22.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from 5.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Consumer Durables industry at 8.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.57% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.41%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Helen of Troy Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Reliance on a volatile macroeconomic environment with changes in global trade policy and tariffs creates significant uncertainty, potentially impacting revenue and net margins.
  
• The inability to provide fiscal '26 guidance and stepping back from long-term growth algorithms indicates uncertainty in future earnings.
  
• Ongoing supply chain disruptions, particularly the heavy reliance on China, may necessitate cost-intensive diversification efforts that could affect net margins.
  
• Increased operational costs related to tariffs, inventory management, and supplier diversification could strain the company's budget, impacting net margins.
  
• A deteriorating consumer confidence due to economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures may decrease consumer spending on discretionary items, affecting revenue.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $49.0 for Helen of Troy based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $60.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $34.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.0 billion, earnings will come to $68.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 22.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.4%.
  
• Given the current share price of $28.42, the analyst price target of $49.0 is 42.0% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.