SPIR: December Financial Update Will Clarify Outlook Amid Contract Momentum

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Spire Global from $16.25 to $13.25, reflecting a more conservative valuation. At the same time, improving revenue growth and margin expectations support maintaining a constructive long term outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that the recent quarterly results exceeded prior expectations, reinforcing confidence in the company’s ability to execute against its growth pipeline.
Despite the lower price target, a Buy rating is being maintained, which suggests that analysts still see meaningful upside relative to current trading levels.
The planned December financial update and introduction of 2025 guidance are viewed as potential catalysts that could clarify the revenue trajectory and support a re rating if growth trends remain intact.
Improving visibility into future contracts and data services is seen as a driver of operating leverage over time, supporting a higher long term earnings and valuation profile.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point to the reduced price target as evidence that previous valuation assumptions were too aggressive relative to the company’s current scale and profitability.
The delay in reporting Q2 results raises some concern around operational and reporting discipline, which could justify a higher risk discount in the near term.
Uncertainty around the forthcoming 2025 guidance, particularly on the pace of revenue growth and path to sustainable margins, keeps some investors cautious on execution risk.
In a higher for longer rate environment, the company’s need to demonstrate consistent cash flow improvement is seen as critical to avoiding further multiple compression.

What's in the News

Spire Global secured a place on the Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD IDIQ contract, a large scale vehicle with a ceiling of up to $151 billion. This positions its RF satellite constellation for expanded U.S. defense work (Client Announcements).
The company issued 2025 guidance, forecasting revenue of $70.5 million to $72.5 million and a net loss per share of $1.70 to $1.73. It also projected more than 30 percent revenue growth in 2026 for the post maritime divestiture business (Corporate Guidance).
Spire received a notice from the NYSE that it is out of compliance with listing standards after failing to file its Q3 2025 Form 10 Q on time. The company has until May 19, 2026 to regain compliance by completing the filing (Delistings, Delayed SEC Filings).
The company expanded its AI driven Power Generation Forecasts into the ERCOT market. This brings satellite enhanced wind and solar forecasting to one of the fastest growing U.S. power grids (Client Announcements).
Spire launched multiple customer and replenishment satellites on SpaceX missions and advanced its Hyperspectral Microwave Sounder demonstrator toward launch. These developments underscore growing demand for its space services and weather data capabilities (Product Related Announcements).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Reduced from $16.25 to $13.25, a meaningful downward revision in the implied long term equity value.
Discount Rate: Decreased slightly from 7.70 percent to approximately 7.21 percent, reflecting a modestly lower perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth: Shifted from an expected decline of about 4.3 percent to projected positive growth of roughly 3.5 percent, marking a notable improvement in the top line outlook.
Net Profit Margin: Edged up from approximately 7.12 percent to 7.37 percent, indicating a small enhancement in long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: Declined from about 124.2x to 95.6x, signaling a less aggressive, though still elevated, valuation multiple on forward earnings.

Expansion into real-time Earth observation and analytics, along with major government contracts, supports stable and recurring revenue growth across multiple verticals.
Streamlined operations and new proprietary technologies improve product differentiation, enabling margin expansion and greater investment in long-term innovation.
Selling the maritime business increases reliance on unproven segments amid operational, revenue, and cash flow risks in a competitive, government-dependent, and increasingly commoditized satellite data market.

Catalysts

About Spire Global

Provides subscription-based data, insights, predictive analytics, and related project-based services worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Growing government and commercial demand for high-frequency, real-time Earth observation data-driven by increased climate change monitoring, global security needs, and expanded ESG mandates-positions Spire to capture larger and more recurring revenue streams from weather, defense, and scientific agencies worldwide.
Rapid development and deployment of proprietary technologies such as the Hyperspectral Microwave Sounder, radio occultation, and AI-powered analytics enhance product differentiation and stickiness, enabling higher pricing and improving gross and net margins as Spire penetrates new verticals.
Reduced financial risk and operational flexibility following the sale of the maritime business and elimination of debt improves Spire's capacity to invest in R&D and business development, likely supporting sustained revenue growth and improving cash flow stability.
Strengthening relationships with major government agencies (e.g., NASA, NOAA, ESA) and long-term, high-value contracts (e.g., the 8-figure, 5-year space services deal) provide visibility into future revenue growth and potential margin expansion as contract momentum accelerates.
The proliferation of IoT and connected devices, combined with greater global supply chain complexity, increases demand for Spire's high-quality, multi-mission satellite data network, driving higher ARPU and supporting a scalable, subscription-based revenue model.

Spire Global Earnings and Revenue Growth

Spire Global Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Spire Global's revenue will decrease by 4.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Spire Global will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Spire Global's profit margin will increase from -98.4% to the average US Professional Services industry of 7.1% in 3 years.
If Spire Global's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $6.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.16) by about September 2028, up from $-97.9 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 124.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from -2.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Professional Services industry at 26.1x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.7%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Spire Global Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The recent sale of Spire's entire maritime business eliminates a major historical revenue stream and could reduce diversification, making the company more dependent on new and unproven areas like space services and weather, which introduces revenue concentration risk and could negatively impact overall revenue growth if those segments underperform.
Despite operational improvements and a strengthened balance sheet, Spire's guidance indicates a steep revenue ramp is required in the second half of the year to meet targets, leaving little room for execution error, contract delays, or customer deferrals-which could lead to revenue shortfalls and missed earnings expectations in the near-to-medium term.
Spire's long-term recurring revenue model is dependent on continued expansion of large government contracts (e.g. NOAA, NASA, ESA), but budget cycles, shifting government procurement priorities, and lengthy approval timelines introduce significant uncertainty and variability to revenue visibility, threatening both revenue stability and margin predictability.
The increasingly competitive landscape for satellite-based data-with strong rivals (Tomorrow.io, HawkEye 360, Unseenlabs), as well as large aerospace incumbents-poses pressure on contract values and margins; and as many providers expand capabilities (e.g., microwave sounders, RF geolocation), basic data services risk commoditization, placing downward pressure on pricing and long-term gross margins.
Ongoing operational and cash management risks remain: The company anticipates ending the year with substantially lower cash, continues to face elevated costs (accounting transitions, new market entries), and is only cautiously optimistic about generating positive operating cash flow, suggesting persistent cash burn could force future financing or share dilution, undermining EPS and shareholder value.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $16.25 for Spire Global based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $87.2 million, earnings will come to $6.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 124.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
Given the current share price of $8.82, the analyst price target of $16.25 is 45.7% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Spire Global?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

NASA And NOAA Partnerships Will Advance Space Services Amid Competition