SPIR: December Financial Update Will Clarify Outlook Amid Contract Momentum

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Spire Global from $16.25 to $13.25, reflecting a more conservative valuation. At the same time, improving revenue growth and margin expectations support maintaining a constructive long term outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that the recent quarterly results exceeded prior expectations, reinforcing confidence in the company’s ability to execute against its growth pipeline.
• Despite the lower price target, a Buy rating is being maintained, which suggests that analysts still see meaningful upside relative to current trading levels.
• The planned December financial update and introduction of 2025 guidance are viewed as potential catalysts that could clarify the revenue trajectory and support a re rating if growth trends remain intact.
• Improving visibility into future contracts and data services is seen as a driver of operating leverage over time, supporting a higher long term earnings and valuation profile.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to the reduced price target as evidence that previous valuation assumptions were too aggressive relative to the company’s current scale and profitability.
• The delay in reporting Q2 results raises some concern around operational and reporting discipline, which could justify a higher risk discount in the near term.
• Uncertainty around the forthcoming 2025 guidance, particularly on the pace of revenue growth and path to sustainable margins, keeps some investors cautious on execution risk.
• In a higher for longer rate environment, the company’s need to demonstrate consistent cash flow improvement is seen as critical to avoiding further multiple compression.

What's in the News

• Spire Global secured a place on the Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD IDIQ contract, a large scale vehicle with a ceiling of up to $151 billion. This positions its RF satellite constellation for expanded U.S. defense work (Client Announcements).
• The company issued 2025 guidance, forecasting revenue of $70.5 million to $72.5 million and a net loss per share of $1.70 to $1.73. It also projected more than 30 percent revenue growth in 2026 for the post maritime divestiture business (Corporate Guidance).
• Spire received a notice from the NYSE that it is out of compliance with listing standards after failing to file its Q3 2025 Form 10 Q on time. The company has until May 19, 2026 to regain compliance by completing the filing (Delistings, Delayed SEC Filings).
• The company expanded its AI driven Power Generation Forecasts into the ERCOT market. This brings satellite enhanced wind and solar forecasting to one of the fastest growing U.S. power grids (Client Announcements).
• Spire launched multiple customer and replenishment satellites on SpaceX missions and advanced its Hyperspectral Microwave Sounder demonstrator toward launch. These developments underscore growing demand for its space services and weather data capabilities (Product Related Announcements).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Reduced from $16.25 to $13.25, a meaningful downward revision in the implied long term equity value.
• Discount Rate: Decreased slightly from 7.70 percent to approximately 7.21 percent, reflecting a modestly lower perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth: Shifted from an expected decline of about 4.3 percent to projected positive growth of roughly 3.5 percent, marking a notable improvement in the top line outlook.
• Net Profit Margin: Edged up from approximately 7.12 percent to 7.37 percent, indicating a small enhancement in long term profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E: Declined from about 124.2x to 95.6x, signaling a less aggressive, though still elevated, valuation multiple on forward earnings.