Remote Work And Digital Transformation Will Expand Online Talent Marketplaces

Key Takeaways

• Early AI integration, rising enterprise clients, and deeper workflow tools could drive higher profitability and revenue growth than currently expected.
  
• International expansion and the shift toward remote freelance work position Fiverr for accelerated, diversified user and revenue growth beyond present analyst forecasts.
  
• Stagnant marketplace growth, rising automation risk, heavy reliance on upmarket clients, higher marketing costs, and growing compliance and product investment threaten sustained profitability and margin improvement.

Catalysts

Operates an online marketplace worldwide.

• Analyst consensus expects AI-driven productivity tools like Fiverr Go to increase engagement and marketplace revenues, but this may be understated-Fiverr's head start in AI integration and the compounding effects of AI-native freelancers could dramatically accelerate both spend per buyer and take rates, driving outsized revenue and EBITDA growth well above current forecasts.
  
• Analysts broadly agree that value-added services (Fiverr Ads, Seller Plus, AutoDS) will expand Services revenue, but this narrative underestimates how the growing subscription mix and deeper workflow integration across AutoDS and the Marketplace can transform the business into a high-margin, recurring revenue model, with positive step-ups in net margins and free cash flow much sooner than anticipated.
  
• The surge of complex, high-value AI categories (AI agents, workflow automation, coding) is introducing sophisticated enterprise buyers to the platform at a rapid pace; as these new buyers shift more project-based and strategic work to Fiverr, average order values and marketplace gross margins should structurally increase, with upside to overall GMV and stickier revenue streams.
  
• Fiverr's advancing international expansion and penetration into underdeveloped markets is mostly unrecognized but could soon unlock exponential user and buyer growth, diversifying revenue sources and delivering robust multi-year compounding in both active users and spend-per-buyer metrics-especially among emerging market SMBs and startups seeking affordable digital transformation talent.
  
• Long-term global workforce shifts toward remote, flexible project-based work favor Fiverr as the platform of choice for the next generation of digital professionals; as freelance work becomes a normalized career path for younger, tech-savvy workers, Fiverr is positioned to see sustainable, long-duration user cohort growth, boosting both the top line and lifetime value per user ahead of consensus.

Fiverr International Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Fiverr International compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming Fiverr International's revenue will grow by 12.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 4.3% today to 15.5% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $92.1 million (and earnings per share of $2.35) by about August 2028, up from $18.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 25.2x on those 2028 earnings, down from 46.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Professional Services industry at 27.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 4.03% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.0%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Fiverr International Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Marketplace revenue remains flat or in low single-digit decline even with stable macroeconomic conditions and perceived AI tailwinds, indicating the possibility of structural market saturation or platform commoditization, which could weigh on long-term revenue growth and profitability.
  
• Management states that some simple, low-priced freelance categories are being displaced by AI tools, suggesting that automation may erode Fiverr's core transaction volume, ultimately limiting future revenue expansion as lower-complexity tasks become obsolete.
  
• There is a growing dependence on higher-value, complex transactions and upmarket customers, increasing exposure to revenue volatility and raising the risk that the platform's growth will stall if larger business clients churn or are lost to emerging competitors, which can impact overall earnings stability.
  
• The company acknowledges persistent macro and industry uncertainties, and as it moves upmarket, the implied rise in customer acquisition and marketing costs could lead to declining marketing ROI and pressure on future net margins as maintaining growth becomes more expensive.
  
• Fiverr is investing heavily in regulatory compliance, complex product development (such as agentic AI and managed services), and integration efforts, all of which may face long-term headwinds from evolving global labor regulations, digital privacy laws, and competition, potentially increasing operating expenses and adversely affecting free cash flow and net margin improvement.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for Fiverr International is $42.54, which represents two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $32.56. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Fiverr International's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $44.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $25.0.
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $595.3 million, earnings will come to $92.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 25.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.0%.
• Given the current share price of $22.96, the bullish analyst price target of $42.54 is 46.0% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.