AI And Automation Will Unlock New Global Markets

Key Takeaways

• Integration of AI, automation, and value-added services is driving higher platform efficiency, improved margins, and more predictable, recurring revenue streams.
  
• Shifting focus toward enterprise clients and international expansion is diversifying revenue sources and reducing dependence on volatile segments and specific regions.
  
• Increased AI automation and marketplace maturity threaten growth, while rising competition and freelancer dissatisfaction may undercut Fiverr's shift toward higher-value and subscription-based services.

Catalysts

Operates an online marketplace worldwide.

• Strong, accelerating demand for AI-related and workflow automation services is expanding the platform's addressable market, attracting higher-value customers, and driving increased spend per buyer, which directly supports future revenue growth and higher average order value.
  
• Expansion of value-added and subscription-based services (such as Seller Plus and AutoDS) is improving the revenue mix towards more recurring and higher-margin streams, supporting sustainable increases in both net margins and earnings visibility.
  
• Ongoing upmarket shift-demonstrated by rising share of large, complex transactions and focus on managed services-reduces reliance on more volatile SMB categories and positions Fiverr to capture a greater share of enterprise and sophisticated client budgets, which can drive long-term revenue and margin expansion.
  
• Rapid adoption of platform-embedded AI and automation (e.g., Neo, Fiverr Go, agentic workflows) is improving platform efficiency, increasing conversion rates for both buyers and sellers, and reducing operational costs, which contributes to future margin enhancement and scalable earnings growth.
  
• International expansion and platform integration efforts, including cross-selling between AutoDS and the Marketplace and tailored offerings for underserved markets, create new growth channels and diversified revenue streams, supporting a longer-term increase in total revenue and reducing regional risk to earnings.

Fiverr International Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Fiverr International's revenue will grow by 8.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 4.3% today to 11.3% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $60.0 million (and earnings per share of $1.18) by about August 2028, up from $18.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $74.2 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $40.3 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 23.9x on those 2028 earnings, down from 45.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Professional Services industry at 26.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 3.22% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.13%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Fiverr International Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The increasing adoption of AI-driven automation is already displacing simple, low-cost gig categories on Fiverr, reducing demand for entry-level and repetitive freelance tasks-this trend could moderate overall Marketplace GMV and topline revenue growth over time, especially if complex project growth does not fully offset these losses.
  
• Despite strong performance in AI-related services and larger, more complex transactions, total Marketplace revenue remains flat to slightly declining year-over-year, signaling potential challenges in expanding the active buyer base and raising concerns of marketplace maturation that could constrain future revenue growth and net earnings.
  
• Fiverr's reliance on higher-value, upmarket, and managed service transactions increases exposure to larger business clients; however, slower or insufficient penetration in the enterprise segment could cap average order value and limit long-term scalability of earnings.
  
• The competitive landscape continues to intensify, both from established players and niche, vertical-focused platforms, which may require substantial ongoing investment in product development and marketing-pressuring net margins and increasing customer acquisition costs.
  
• As Fiverr shifts focus to complex offerings and subscription-based services for freelancers (e.g., Seller Plus, AutoDS), there is risk of platform commoditization and potential freelancer dissatisfaction (over fees, market saturation, or perceived value), which may impact talent supply, user retention, and ultimately revenue stability.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $32.556 for Fiverr International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $44.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $25.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $533.3 million, earnings will come to $60.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 23.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.1%.
• Given the current share price of $22.18, the analyst price target of $32.56 is 31.9% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.