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Analysts Adjust TransDigm Group Outlook Amid Aftermarket Strength and Softer OEM Demand

Published
18 Jul 24
Updated
05 Nov 25
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-4.9%
7D
-1.8%

Author's Valuation

US$1.56k17.5% undervalued intrinsic discount

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 05 Nov 25

TDG: Aftermarket Demand And Acquisition Capacity Will Drive Shares Higher

Analysts have reduced their price targets for TransDigm Group. Recent estimates have moved from a range of about $1,730 to $1,385 per share, citing factors including compressed valuation multiples, shifting after-market demand, and a more uncertain outlook for large acquisitions.

Shared on 22 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 1.79%

Analysts Adjust TransDigm Group Outlook Amid Aftermarket Strength and Softer OEM Demand

Analysts have revised TransDigm Group's price target lower, reducing the fair value from $1,586 to $1,558. This adjustment is attributed to factors such as softening commercial OEM demand, compressed EBITDA multiples, and a more cautious outlook on large acquisitions.

Shared on 08 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 1.38%

Air Travel Demand And OEM Backlogs Will Sustain Future Upside

TransDigm Group's analyst price target has been lowered slightly from approximately $1,608 to $1,586. Analysts cite concerns around compressed EBITDA multiples and reduced Commercial OEM expectations, despite ongoing acquisition capacity and robust after-market fundamentals.

Shared on 04 Sep 25

Fair value Decreased 0.79%

Air Travel Demand And OEM Backlogs Will Sustain Future Upside

TransDigm Group’s price target remains steady at $1621 as weaker commercial OEM sales expectations are offset by bullish confidence in ongoing aerospace and defense strength, sector tailwinds, and the company’s resilient fundamentals. Analyst Commentary Recent reduction in price target reflects lowered sales guidance due to weaker Commercial OEM end-market expectations, driven by slower build rates and inventory destocking in the supply chain.

Shared on 07 May 25

Fair value Increased 19%

Air Travel Demand And OEM Backlogs Will Sustain Future Upside

Shared on 30 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 10%

M&A And Leadership Change Will Drive Aerospace Success

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased shares outstanding growth rate from 0.0% to 0.0%.

Shared on 23 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.13%

M&A And Leadership Change Will Drive Aerospace Success

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 16 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 7.47%

M&A And Leadership Change Will Drive Aerospace Success

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased profit margin from 22.7% to 25.0%, decreased future PE multiple from 44.4x to 38.6x, decreased discount rate from 7.6% to 6.7% and increased shares outstanding growth rate from 0.0% to 0.0%.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 6.35%

M&A And Leadership Change Will Drive Aerospace Success

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 2.68%

M&A And Leadership Change Will Drive Aerospace Success

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 0.25%

M&A And Leadership Change Will Drive Aerospace Success

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

M&A And Leadership Change Will Drive Aerospace Success

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 10 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 9.74%

M&A And Leadership Change Will Drive Aerospace Success

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.