Urbanization And Renewables Will Drive Heavy Lifting Amid Supply Risks

Key Takeaways

• Expanding service capabilities and advanced asset tracking promise higher recurring, high-margin revenue and enhanced earnings stability across economic cycles.
  
• Global infrastructure growth and demand for specialized cranes position Manitowoc for sustained market share gains, premium pricing, and elevated revenue momentum.
  
• Reliance on legacy markets, weak innovation, and financial constraints expose the company to demand risks, margin pressure, and reduced competitiveness amid evolving industry trends.

Catalysts

Provides engineered lifting solutions in the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.

• While analyst consensus expects aftermarket growth and expanded service offerings to incrementally boost margins, the adoption of ServiceMax-enabling cradle-to-grave asset tracking and contract management-could accelerate share gains and significantly improve the recurring, high-margin revenue model, supporting sustained margin expansion and earnings resilience through the cycle.
  
• Analysts broadly agree the healthy recovery in Europe and normalization in the U.S. will drive renewed order intake, but exceptionally low U.S. dealer inventories, combined with expiring uncertainty around tariffs and accelerated depreciation incentives, set the stage for a potentially explosive snapback in crane demand, allowing Manitowoc to rapidly leverage its scaled, flexible production for outsized revenue growth once sentiment turns.
  
• Surging structural investment in global infrastructure, fueled by multibillion-dollar government programs in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific-and the long-term need to replace and upgrade aging assets-creates a multi-year tailwind for Manitowoc's product lines, ensuring robust order pipelines and persistent revenue growth well above cyclical norms.
  
• The accelerating global build-out of renewables and data centers, which require specialized lifting solutions, positions Manitowoc for outsized share gains and pricing power in high-spec crane applications, driving premium product sales and further expanding both top-line and gross margins.
  
• Decades-long focus on Lean operations and supply chain flexibility has transformed Manitowoc's ability to rapidly scale output and respond instantly to shifting market signals, supporting higher free cash flow conversion and enabling strategic deployment of internal capital toward innovation and bolt-on acquisitions to support long-term earnings growth.

Manitowoc Company Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Manitowoc Company compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming Manitowoc Company's revenue will grow by 4.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 2.1% today to 2.0% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $48.3 million (and earnings per share of $1.17) by about August 2028, up from $44.9 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 16.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from 7.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Machinery industry at 24.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.95% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.13%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Manitowoc Company Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company's heavy dependence on traditional crane products and core construction markets makes it vulnerable to long-term secular trends such as increasing automation and robotics, which could reduce long-term demand and constrain revenue growth opportunities.
  
• Ongoing and escalating tariffs, as well as uncertainties surrounding their level and duration, are causing significant order delays, dealer inventory declines, and cautious purchasing-this prolongs revenue headwinds and increases the risk of more volatile or declining earnings.
  
• Global moves toward lower-carbon, less resource-intensive infrastructure could structurally dampen demand for large-scale crane-intensive projects, while missed deliveries due to supply chain disruption in the quarter illustrate a vulnerability to deglobalization and geopolitical instability that threatens future international sales and profits.
  
• The company is showing signs of underinvestment in innovation-capital expenditures remain modest and investments are skewed toward fleet upgrades and aftermarket services rather than next-generation products-raising the risk that slower adoption of emerging digital and automation technologies could erode competitiveness and compress margins over time.
  
• High leverage and cash flow constraints, evidenced by net leverage rising to approximately four times and recent reductions in working capital and free cash flow expectations, leave the company with limited flexibility to invest for growth or weather downturns, posing an ongoing risk to net margins and long-term earnings stability.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for Manitowoc Company is $16.0, which is the highest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Manitowoc Company's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $16.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.4 billion, earnings will come to $48.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 16.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.1%.
• Given the current share price of $9.34, the bullish analyst price target of $16.0 is 41.6% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.