Public Funding And Private Sector Work Expected To Drive Efficiency Gains

Key Takeaways

• Strategic growth driven by public funding and private sector work in infrastructure and renewable energy is expected to boost revenue and efficiency.
  
• Focus on operational improvements, strategic acquisitions, and cash flow management aims to enhance margins, shareholder value, and long-term earnings potential.
  
• Heavy reliance on public funding and increased SG&A expenses pose risks to revenue stability and profitability amidst potential macroeconomic challenges.

Catalysts

Operates as an infrastructure contractor in the United States.

• Granite Construction expects to achieve organic revenue growth at a compounded annual growth rate of 6% to 8% through 2027, driven by strong public market funding from the infrastructure bill and increased private sector work in areas like water infrastructure and renewable energy. This organic growth is expected to positively impact revenues.
  
• The company intends to improve adjusted EBITDA margins to a range of 12% to 14% by 2027 through operational improvements in its Construction and Materials segments, allowing for increased efficiency in SG&A and improved gross profit margins.
  
• M&A strategy includes executing bolt-on acquisitions and expanding geographically, particularly in the Southeast, with potential larger acquisitions that would be accretive to adjusted EBITDA margin, positively impacting earning potential in the long term.
  
• Granite expects price increases and volume growth in the Materials segment, specifically in aggregates and asphalt, which are expected to drive revenue growth and margins over the next three years.
  
• The company's focus on cash flow with a target free cash flow margin of 6% to 8% of revenue by 2027, and initiatives to streamline CapEx and enhance returns, are anticipated to enhance shareholder value and reinvestment capacity, affecting the overall financial health and earnings.

Granite Construction Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Granite Construction's revenue will grow by 5.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 2.8% today to 8.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $401.6 million (and earnings per share of $8.06) by about December 2027, up from $110.9 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.4x on those 2027 earnings, down from 36.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Construction industry at 29.8x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 4.47% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.33%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Granite Construction Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Project delays, as mentioned, can push anticipated revenue into future periods, potentially affecting short-term cash flow and revenue recognition.
  
• The increased SG&A expenses due to higher incentive compensation and nonqualified deferred compensation expense could pressurize net margins and may lead to lower overall profitability if not managed well.
  
• The heavy reliance on public funding, which constitutes about 75% of their Construction revenue, could pose a risk if there are disruptions or reductions in governmental infrastructure spending, affecting future revenue stability.
  
• Expectations of significant pricing increases in Materials segments could face resistance from customers or market pressures, which may impact revenue growth and profit margins in that segment.
  
• Potential changes in the macroeconomic environment, including possible slowdowns or recessions, could affect both public and private sector spending on infrastructure, influencing revenue and earnings projections.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $95.75 for Granite Construction based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $113.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $80.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $4.7 billion, earnings will come to $401.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.3%.
• Given the current share price of $91.78, the analyst's price target of $95.75 is 4.1% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.