Expanding Data Centers And Mega Projects Will Unlock Future Potential

Key Takeaways

• Eaton's focus on data centers and mega projects drives strong growth, increasing backlog and enhancing revenue and margins.
  
• Investments in aerospace and operational improvements boost efficiency, supporting long-term earnings and margin growth projections.
  
• Eaton's dependence on data centers and mega projects for growth is risky if these segments underperform, potentially impacting projected revenue and earnings.

Catalysts

Operates as a power management company worldwide.

• Eaton's strategic focus on data centers, supported by a backlog that has increased by 50% over the previous year, is expected to drive robust double-digit growth, positively impacting both revenue and margins.
  
• The company is capitalizing on mega projects, with a substantial pipeline indicating long-term growth. This expanded backlog, valued at $1.9 trillion with a 33% increase from last year, underpins both revenue and earnings growth expectations.
  
• Planned capacity expansions in Electrical Americas and improved efficiencies are projected to bolster organic growth between 7% and 9% in 2025, which should enhance both revenue and net margin growth.
  
• Eaton's continued investment in expanding its aerospace segment, coupled with a record backlog, supports the projection of sustained double-digit growth and margin improvement, which will contribute positively to future earnings.
  
• Ongoing operational improvements, including the Eaton Business System, are designed to enhance efficiency and expand margins. This is expected to support consistent earnings per share growth, with a projected increase of 11% for 2025.

Eaton Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Eaton compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming Eaton's revenue will grow by 9.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 15.3% today to 17.2% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $5.6 billion (and earnings per share of $14.51) by about April 2028, up from $3.8 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 32.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from 28.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Electrical industry at 21.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.95% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.68%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Eaton Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Eaton's vulnerability to potential labor shortage constraints, particularly in skilled trades, may impact their ability to expand as planned, creating bottlenecks that could hinder future revenue growth.
  
• The Aerospace segment's performance was negatively impacted by Boeing strikes, and possible future disruptions in this sector could constrain revenue and profitability.
  
• The Vehicle and eMobility segments experienced declines due to program launch and ramp-up delays, with continued challenges likely impacting revenue and margins.
  
• The heavy reliance on data centers and mega projects for future growth poses a risk if these segments do not perform as well as anticipated, potentially impacting Eaton's projected revenue and earnings.
  
• Political uncertainties related to tariffs could increase costs or disrupt supply chains, potentially affecting Eaton's net margins if not effectively managed.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for Eaton is $385.31, which represents one standard deviation above the consensus price target of $343.16. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Eaton's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $418.18, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $270.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $32.8 billion, earnings will come to $5.6 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 32.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.7%.
  
• Given the current share price of $277.53, the bullish analyst price target of $385.31 is 28.0% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.