Last Update 12 Dec 25

DDD: Execution On New Products And Cost Discipline Will Drive Confidence

Analysts have modestly increased their price target for 3D Systems to $4.75 from $4.00, citing a slightly higher assumed future earnings multiple and a marginally higher discount rate while leaving long term growth and margin expectations effectively unchanged.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts view the modest price target increase as a reflection of slightly improved confidence in 3D Systems' ability to execute on its strategy, while still recognizing meaningful execution and market risks at current levels.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the higher price target as supported by incremental improvements in the assumed earnings multiple, suggesting the market may be willing to pay slightly more for the company’s future cash flow potential.
They highlight that maintaining an Overweight stance indicates expectations for the shares to outperform peers if management can deliver on operational efficiencies and stabilize top line trends.
Some view the unchanged long term growth and margin assumptions as conservative, leaving potential upside if cost controls, mix shift, or demand recovery come through more strongly than currently modeled.
The updated valuation framework is seen as acknowledging recent progress in strategic refocusing and portfolio optimization, which could support more predictable execution over the medium term.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts note that the price target revision is modest in absolute terms, which underscores that the overall return potential remains constrained without a clear inflection in revenue growth.
The slightly higher discount rate embedded in the new valuation signals lingering concerns around execution risk, industry competition, and the timing of a sustained recovery in demand.
Unchanged long term margin and growth expectations suggest limited confidence in near term catalysts, with the risk that any operational missteps could quickly erode already tight valuation support.
There is caution that the multiple expansion underpinning the target hike is not yet backed by consistently improving fundamentals, leaving the stock vulnerable if upcoming results disappoint.

What's in the News

3D Systems unveiled the SLA 825 Dual, a new large frame stereolithography printer aimed at high throughput applications in automotive, Formula 1, aerospace, space, and service bureaus. The company highlighted faster production cycles and reduced manual labor in investment casting workflows (Key Developments).
The company introduced ArrayCast, a tooling free investment casting solution that enables fully assembled, 3D printed casting trees and greater design freedom. It also introduced the new Accura SbF resin to improve stability and predictability in casting processes (Key Developments).
3D Systems launched Accura Xtreme Black, a durable prototyping resin designed for demanding form, fit, and function applications such as snap fits, rugged enclosures, and consumer electronics (Key Developments).
The company rolled out the MJP 300W Plus wax 3D printer for jewelry manufacturing. It features new print modes in 3D Sprint software that target up to 30% higher productivity, 20% lower material usage, and improved surface finish (Key Developments).
Management issued fourth quarter 2025 guidance calling for sequential revenue growth of 8% to 10% versus the third quarter. This signaled expectations for near term demand improvement (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Unchanged at $3.63 per share, reflecting a stable view of intrinsic equity value despite recent updates to other assumptions.
Discount Rate: Risen slightly from 10.32% to approximately 10.60%, implying a modestly higher required return to compensate for perceived risk.
Revenue Growth: Effectively flat at about 2.38% annually, indicating no material change in long term top line expectations.
Net Profit Margin: Essentially unchanged at roughly 9.29%, suggesting steady long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: Increased slightly from 13.71x to about 13.82x, indicating a small uplift in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Growth in healthcare and dental solutions, plus expanded digital manufacturing, positions the company for higher-margin recurring revenues and global market leadership.
Strategic cost cuts, R&D commercialization, and industry shifts to decentralized production are set to drive sustainable profitability and diversify revenue streams.
Prolonged macro uncertainty, delayed customer spending, aggressive restructuring, and rising competition threaten both 3D Systems' growth potential and long-term earnings stability.

Catalysts

About 3D Systems

Provides 3D printing and digital manufacturing solutions in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Oceania.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Demand for 3D Systems' healthcare solutions, particularly MedTech (personalized implants, trauma, and bone cancer treatments) and Dental (NextDent dentures), is benefitting from growing healthcare customization needs and rapid expansion of digital dentistry. These areas are poised to drive recurring, higher-margin service and product revenues as regulatory approvals expand globally, supporting both top-line and margin growth.
The company's end-to-end additive manufacturing model (process, parts, printers) positions it to benefit from the shift toward on-demand, decentralized production and supply chain resiliency in sectors like aerospace, defense, and industrials. As adoption of additive manufacturing for production parts (beyond prototyping) accelerates, this model is likely to increase revenues and deliver operating leverage over time.
Aggressive cost reduction initiatives-including in-sourcing manufacturing, global footprint consolidation, and automation of back-office functions-are expected to reduce COGS and OpEx, significantly improving gross margins and positioning the company for sustainable profitability and positive cash flow by 2026.
Strategic R&D prioritization is moving from heavy investment (20% of sales) to commercialization of a refreshed portfolio of metal, polymer, and regenerative technologies, which is expected to result in increased product launches, expand addressable markets, and yield a better return on R&D, supporting long-term revenue and profit growth.
Secular trends towards sustainability, efficient resource use, and supply chain localization are increasing demand for 3D printing and additive manufacturing, directly aligning with 3D Systems' distributed manufacturing and energy-efficient platform strengths, which should support resilient, diversified revenue streams and medium-term margin expansion.

3D Systems Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming 3D Systems's revenue will decrease by 4.5% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -35.0% today to 0.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.6 million (and earnings per share of $-0.15) by about September 2028, up from $-144.8 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 178.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from -1.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Machinery industry at 24.0x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 5.43% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.71%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

3D Systems Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

3D Systems is experiencing a significant and protracted decline in customer capital expenditures for new production capacity, primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainty and volatile global tariff environments, which have caused a 16% year-over-year revenue decline; this trend, if sustained, could result in continued revenue stagnation or contraction.
The ongoing macro challenges and customer uncertainty around where to locate manufacturing assets have led to elongated sales cycles and delayed large-capex purchases, potentially muting 3D Systems' ability to convert its pipeline and recover top-line industrial growth in a timely manner, risking both near
and long-term revenue targets.
The company is undertaking aggressive restructuring, including headcount reduction, facility consolidation, and R&D spending cuts; while aimed at improving margins and cash flow, this could compromise 3D Systems' innovation engine and leave it less competitive versus rivals that maintain or increase R&D, negatively impacting long-term earnings potential.
Competitive risk remains high, especially as 3D printing hardware for certain markets (like dental) becomes commoditized and new entrants or incumbents, perhaps with deeper resources or more innovation velocity, may erode 3D Systems' market share and pricing power, which would place pressure on both margins and future revenue growth.
The company's business mix has increased dependency on service and healthcare revenues, but weak performance in key verticals such as Dental-hit by both end-customer weakness and large customer order volatility-exposes the firm to further earnings volatility should sector adoption rates or market growth disappoint, risking both net margins and predictable earnings streams.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $3.25 for 3D Systems based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $4.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $2.5.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $359.5 million, earnings will come to $2.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 178.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.7%.
Given the current share price of $2.05, the analyst price target of $3.25 is 36.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Healthcare Customization And Additive Manufacturing Will Forge A Resilient Future