ChargePoint's Future Revenue Growth Could Exceed 20% in the Next 5 Years

ChargePoint (CHPT) Investment Thesis – Long-Term Outlook

ChargePoint is one of the most established names in the EV charging ecosystem, with a strong footprint across Level 2 commercial and fleet infrastructure. While it doesn’t focus heavily on DC fast charging like some peers, its strategy emphasizes widespread workplace, multi-unit dwelling, and fleet solutions—crucial segments in an electrifying economy. Here’s how I see their trajectory:

3 Years (2028): By 2028, ChargePoint should have scaled its fleet operations significantly, leveraging partnerships with logistics firms, last-mile delivery companies, and municipalities. The emphasis will likely remain on enterprise contracts, software subscriptions, and hardware-as-a-service models. Utilization may remain moderate for Level 2 public stations, but recurring software revenue (e.g., CPaaS, ChargePoint Cloud) should become a larger share of the top line. Profitability will hinge on operating discipline and growth in high-margin services.

5 Years (2030): If fleet electrification continues at pace and infrastructure spending remains robust, ChargePoint could reach $1B+ in annual revenue. By this point, the mix should shift more decisively toward software, network services, and fleet management solutions. Margins would likely expand, especially if hardware costs decline and the installed base increases. ChargePoint’s brand could be synonymous with workplace and fleet charging, much like Cisco became for networking—ubiquitous but not flashy. A strategic acquisition by a utility, industrial conglomerate, or global mobility firm wouldn’t be out of the question.

10 Years (2035): ChargePoint’s long game likely involves becoming a steady, infrastructure-enabled SaaS provider with embedded relationships across the commercial EV ecosystem. Their platform could expand into grid services, energy management, and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) coordination. If they maintain relevance and evolve with technology shifts, they may become a backbone provider for the electrified commercial sector. Alternatively, if growth stalls or hardware commoditizes too quickly, they risk becoming a niche player or an acquisition target.

Valuation: Near-term price action reflects macro pressures, cash burn, and investor skepticism on hardware-heavy models. But if ChargePoint can evolve into a recurring-revenue-heavy business with scaled software margins, the market could eventually re-rate it. Key will be execution—particularly balancing growth with cost discipline and showing tangible value to fleet and enterprise customers.

Risks: ChargePoint faces several headwinds: tightening capital markets, competition from vertically integrated OEMs and energy companies, hardware commoditization, and reliance on subsidies or grants. Level 2 utilization remains a concern outside fleet or workplace environments. Execution risk is high, and the path to sustained profitability isn’t guaranteed.

In short: ChargePoint is a bet on the infrastructure and software backbone of commercial EV adoption. It’s less about public fast charging and more about owning the “pipes and plumbing” of workplace and fleet electrification. Higher risk, but if execution aligns with market needs, ChargePoint could be a critical enabler of the next transportation wave.