- Year-End 2025 (Estimate): The first half of 2025 generated $26.4 million. Assuming continued strong growth in the second half, the full-year 2025 revenue could plausibly be in the $60 million to $70 million range.
- Year 1 (2026): Assuming the growth rate decelerates but remains very strong at 100%, potential revenue could be $120 million to $140 million.
- Year 2 (2027): With a further deceleration to 75% growth, potential revenue could reach $210 million to $245 million.
- Year 3 (2028): If the growth rate settles to 50%, potential revenue could be in the range of $315 million to $368 million.
Profit Margin justification
Based on Amprius's recent performance and benchmarks from established battery manufacturers, a reasonable estimated gross profit margin for Amprius in three years would be in the 18% to 25% range.
Future PE Justification
The justification rests on the assumption that Amprius is not just a growth company, but a hyper-growth company. While an average company growing at 10-15% might get a 20x P/E, a company expected to grow earnings at 40-50% annually for many years can easily command a multiple of 35x or higher.
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Disclaimer
The user goodvalue has a position in NYSE:AMPX. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
