Autonomous Defense And Reshoring Trends Will Drive Long Term Upside Potential

Catalysts

About Palladyne AI

Palladyne AI develops embodied AI software and integrated defense platforms that enable autonomous, mission-ready systems in both national security and industrial environments.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Acceleration of autonomous and swarming requirements in defense programs, including direct Air Force and Navy development contracts and the replicator initiative, positions SwarmOS and IntelliSwarm to scale into higher value software and systems revenue, which should support faster top line growth and expanding earnings.
• Rising demand for low cost, high impact munitions is driving a shift toward attritable systems like Banshee and SwarmStrike. Integrating BRAIN avionics and embodied AI can justify premium pricing at lower unit cost, improving revenue visibility and long term net margins as these platforms move from TRL 6 to TRL 9.
• Policy driven reshoring and supply chain resilience are increasing the value of certified U.S. production. This allows Crucis, with its AS9100 certification and backlog tied to programs like F 35 and Tomahawk, to capture more content per platform and lift consolidated revenue and manufacturing margins as capacity is filled.
• The convergence of AI, avionics and American manufacturing in a vertically integrated stack differentiates Palladyne as a mid tier prime alternative. This enables margin stacking across software, hardware and fabrication and supports higher blended gross margins and operating leverage as volume ramps.
• Growing commercial adoption of hardware agnostic IQ and Pilot to orchestrate multi robot environments in manufacturing and logistics adds a recurring software and services layer that can compound alongside defense wins, enhancing revenue diversification and stabilizing earnings over the long term.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming Palladyne AI's revenue will grow by 149.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that Palladyne AI will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Palladyne AI's profit margin will increase from -953.5% to the average US Machinery industry of 9.3% in 3 years.
• If Palladyne AI's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $6.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.12) by about December 2028, up from $-41.4 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 94.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -6.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Machinery industry at 25.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.36%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• The company is still in an early commercialization phase for many of its defense platforms, with Banshee and SwarmStrike only at TRL 6 and requiring an additional 5 million dollars to reach TRL 9, so any delay in technical milestones, flight testing or certification could push out deployment timelines and slow the anticipated ramp in revenue and earnings.
• Palladyne’s strategy is heavily concentrated on U.S. Department of War priorities such as the replicator initiative, reshoring and cost per effect, which are subject to budget cycles, policy shifts and procurement bottlenecks, meaning any change in defense spending priorities or contract timing could reduce order flow and pressure top line growth.
• The vertical integration model, including the 31 million dollars spent on GuideTech and Crucis and a potential 25 million dollar earn out, increases operational complexity and fixed cost, so if the company fails to achieve the projected tripling of revenue by 2026, margin expansion and long term net margins could be weaker than expected.
• Crucis and GuideTech rely on major defense primes and programs such as F 16, F 35, Tomahawk and Bradley, creating customer and program concentration risk, so any cutbacks, delays or recompetition on these platforms could reduce manufacturing utilization, compress gross margins and lower consolidated earnings.
• The commercial IQ business faces a long 12 to 18 month sales cycle and requires a significantly improved user interface to achieve broad adoption, so slower than expected scaling in manufacturing and logistics could limit the software and services mix, constrain recurring revenue growth and delay the path to sustainable profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $9.0 for Palladyne AI based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $11.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $7.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $67.1 million, earnings will come to $6.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 94.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
  
• Given the current share price of $5.95, the analyst price target of $9.0 is 33.9% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.