Merger Synergies And Balance Sheet Optimization Will Drive Stronger Margins And Earnings Stability

Catalysts

About Beacon Financial

Beacon Financial is a Northeast based bank holding company providing retail, commercial and specialty lending alongside deposit and treasury services to consumers and businesses.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Realization of merger cost synergies, including further headcount reductions and vendor consolidation after the core conversion, should reduce operating expenses toward the targeted quarterly run rate and support expanding net margins and earnings.
• Leveraging a broader Northeast footprint, decentralized regional leadership and strong retention of client facing talent positions Beacon to capture higher coupon C&I and specialty originations, which can lift loan yields, net interest income and ultimately revenue growth.
• Optimization of the balance sheet through runoff or sale of noncore portfolios, selective securities repositioning and disciplined CRE concentration management is likely to free capital for higher return lending and potential future buybacks, improving return on equity and earnings per share.
• Sticky, lower cost deposits from Berkshire combined with disciplined deposit beta management as rates move lower provide a favorable funding mix that can protect the net interest margin and support more resilient revenue and earnings across cycles.
• Expected stability in credit costs as specific reserves on identified troubled assets are worked through, alongside a targeted provision range of $5 million to $9 million per quarter, should translate into more predictable credit expense and stronger net income visibility.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming Beacon Financial's revenue will grow by 63.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 2.6% today to 43.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $606.2 million (and earnings per share of $6.96) by about December 2028, up from $8.4 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 4.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 270.0x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 11.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 6.51% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.19%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• Elevated credit losses tied to the identified pool of approximately $380 million of troubled assets and concentrated exposure in equipment finance and criticized office loans could persist for longer than expected, leading to higher than guided quarterly provisions and net charge-offs and pressuring net income and earnings growth.
• Beacon's high commercial real estate concentration, currently at 355% of total risk based capital with plans to reduce it toward 300% by 2027, leaves the bank vulnerable to a prolonged downturn in office and broader CRE markets, which could compress collateral values, require additional reserves and reduce return on equity and earnings.
• Merger integration risk, including the remaining $22 million to $24 million of deal related charges, further headcount reductions and multiple brand and systems consolidations, could disrupt client relationships and talent retention, slowing loan and deposit growth and limiting operating leverage improvements that are needed to expand net margins and earnings.
• Beacon's loan to deposit ratio of 96.5%, alongside planned mid single digit growth in interest earning assets, may constrain balance sheet flexibility if core deposit growth lags or pricing becomes more competitive, which could force the bank to rely on higher cost funding and weigh on net interest margin and revenue.
• Nonrecurring and volatile purchase accounting accretion, estimated at $15 million to $20 million per quarter and sensitive to loan prepayments and upcoming accounting rule changes, currently boosts reported net interest margin. A faster than expected decline in this benefit would reveal a lower underlying margin and potentially weaker revenue and earnings momentum.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $32.67 for Beacon Financial based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $39.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $28.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.4 billion, earnings will come to $606.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 4.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.2%.
  
• Given the current share price of $27.03, the analyst price target of $32.67 is 17.3% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.