Deposit Quality Improvements And Technology Initiatives Will Support Future Success

Key Takeaways

• Improvement in deposit quality through Bankwell Direct could reduce reliance on broker deposits, positively impacting future net interest margins.
  
• Expansion in SBA loan offerings and efficient operations aid fee income growth and improved long-term profitability.
  
• Credit quality challenges and strategic cost management are crucial as they affect profitability, with implications for deposit growth, asset quality, and efficiency.

Catalysts

Operates as the bank holding company for Bankwell Bank that provides various banking services for individual and commercial customers.

• Bankwell Financial Group is seeing improvements in deposit quality and diversity through the rollout of Bankwell Direct, potentially leading to reduced reliance on broker deposits and benefiting future net interest margins.
  
• The company anticipates margin expansion into 2025 as substantial term deposits reprice at lower rates, which should improve earnings per share by approximately $0.33 and contribute about 11 basis points of margin expansion. This is expected to enhance revenue and profitability.
  
• Continued focus on innovation and technology, such as the development of a digital business banking suite and successful pilots like Bankwell Direct, will likely foster business growth, leading to potential revenue increases and enhanced customer engagement.
  
• Bankwell aims to expand its SBA loan offerings, which will facilitate fee income growth. By selling the guaranteed portions of these loans, the company is positioned to generate significant non-interest income while managing capital efficiently.
  
• The strategic focus on efficient operations and maintaining stable non-interest expenses, while driving new revenue initiatives, positions Bankwell for improved net margins and profitability in the long term.

Bankwell Financial Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Bankwell Financial Group's revenue will grow by 18.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 20.7% today to 39.3% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $47.3 million (and earnings per share of $6.2) by about December 2027, up from $14.9 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 7.1x on those 2027 earnings, down from 16.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 12.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.26%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Bankwell Financial Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The $8.2 million charge-off due to the deterioration of an office loan negatively impacted earnings per share, suggesting potential risks in credit quality that could affect future profits.
  
• The multifamily loan downgrade to nonperforming status reflects ongoing credit challenges, which may impact the bank's asset quality and provision expenses.
  
• The reduction in net interest margin due to nonperforming loans and elevated provision expenses may pressure the bank's profitability and earnings capability.
  
• Bankwell's need to strategically manage deposit costs through Bankwell Direct highlights potential challenges in balancing deposit growth with interest rate risks, affecting net margins.
  
• Continued investments in technology and strategic initiatives could strain the bank's noninterest expense ratio, impacting the overall efficiency ratio and reduced net earnings.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $40.0 for Bankwell Financial Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $120.4 million, earnings will come to $47.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 7.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.3%.
• Given the current share price of $31.57, the analyst's price target of $40.0 is 21.1% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.