Rising Tariffs And EV Shift Will Weaken RoRo Demand

Key Takeaways

• Shifting automotive production and stricter U.S. trade policies threaten long-term shipping demand and revenue stability for Höegh Autoliners.
  
• Increased vessel supply and environmental compliance costs risk lower pricing power, compressed margins, and diminished future earnings growth.
  
• Robust financial health, strategic contract coverage, fleet renewal, and strong OEM ties position Höegh Autoliners for stable growth amid evolving environmental and trade dynamics.

Catalysts

Provides ocean transportation services within the roll-on roll-off (RoRo) cargoes on deep sea and short sea markets in Norway.

• Prolonged and escalating U.S. import tariffs along with new port fees introduce sustained uncertainty and could significantly curb car imports and exports involving the U.S., reducing long-haul shipping volumes and directly impacting revenue growth over the coming years.
  
• The accelerating global trend towards electric vehicles and increasing regionalization of automotive production is likely to shift manufacturing closer to end-markets, lowering the demand for deep-sea RoRo shipping and eroding both volumes and pricing power for Höegh in the long-term.
  
• A strategic pivot towards longer-term contracts at lower rates has locked a large share of Höegh's revenues into fixed, multiyear agreements with limited exposure to upside in faster-rising spot markets, which could constrain future earnings recovery and margin improvement if shipping demand rebounds unexpectedly.
  
• Industry-wide vessel ordering, including for newer LNG
• and battery-powered ships, risks pushing the sector into oversupply just as global car trade patterns weaken, leading to lower utilization rates, softer pricing, and declining EBITDA margins industry-wide.
  
• Heightening environmental regulation and associated compliance costs will continue to require heavy capital investment in fleet renewal and technology upgrades, compressing free cash flow and lowering net margins even if emission targets are met.

Höegh Autoliners Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more pessimistic perspective on Höegh Autoliners compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bearish cohort of analysts.
• The bearish analysts are assuming Höegh Autoliners's revenue will decrease by 10.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bearish analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 48.0% today to 22.0% in 3 years time.
• The bearish analysts expect earnings to reach $214.4 million (and earnings per share of $1.12) by about July 2028, down from $659.1 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bearish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 6.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 2.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the NO Shipping industry at 3.6x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.05%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Höegh Autoliners Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Höegh Autoliners has demonstrated robust operational flexibility and financial strength, with a strong balance sheet, fully financed fleet renewal program, and sustained dividend payouts, suggesting resilience in the face of industry shocks, which could support stable or growing net profit and dividend capacity.
  
• The company's strategic expansion of its contract portfolio, including a high contract coverage ratio above 80 percent with an average duration of over three years, significantly enhances earnings visibility and revenue stability through periods of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
  
• The ongoing delivery and operation of next-generation, energy-efficient Aurora-class newbuild vessels position Höegh as an environmental leader, which is likely to attract environmentally conscious clients and support utilization rates and margins as global regulatory and customer pressures for decarbonization accelerate.
  
• Strong relationships and integration with major global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), including those investing heavily in U.S. manufacturing, create customer stickiness that secures recurring business and underpins long-term revenue streams, even under changing trade patterns.
  
• The long-term secular trend of global electric vehicle and hybrid export growth from Asia, particularly China, continues to expand overall automotive trade volumes, which will provide ongoing demand for specialized RoRo shipping services, thereby supporting revenue and earnings despite short-term headwinds.

Valuation

• The assumed bearish price target for Höegh Autoliners is NOK64.86, which represents the lowest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Höegh Autoliners's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the more bearish end of the spectrum.
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of NOK89.89, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just NOK64.86.
• In order for you to agree with the bearish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $974.7 million, earnings will come to $214.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 6.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.1%.
• Given the current share price of NOK98.25, the bearish analyst price target of NOK64.86 is 51.5% lower.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.