Sri Lankan Market Community

Intrinsic Value per Share (DCF-based): Rs. 40.00 Current Market Price (CMP): Rs. 80.00 ⚠️ Overvaluation: CMP is 100% above intrinsic value! Key Concerns and Valuation Risks Overpriced Relative to Intrinsic Value Even under an optimistic growth scenario (10% FCF growth), the stock’s intrinsic value only reaches Rs. 57.

Intrinsic Value per Share (DCF-based): Rs. 1,561.93 Current Market Price (CMP): Rs. 295 Undervaluation: CMP is 81% below intrinsic value! Key Strengths and Growth Potential 🟢 Strong Profitability & Cash Flow Net Profit Margin: 23.58% (higher than industry average) Free Cash Flow Yield: 52.13% (indicates strong cash generation) Earnings Yield: 24% (suggests high return potential) 🟢 Exceptional Financial Health Debt-to-Equity: 0.00% (No debt burden, reducing financial risk) Current Ratio: 7.49 (indicating strong short-term liquidity) Cash per Share: Rs. 29.72 (high cash reserves provide safety) 🟢 Attractive Valuation Metrics Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 4.4 (well below the market average) Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 0.78 (trading below book value) PEG Ratio: 0.37 (suggests strong earnings growth at a cheap price) 🟢 Robust Growth and Shareholder Returns Compounded NAVPS Growth (10 years): 19.94% (23.03% if dividends reinvested) Sustainable Growth Rate: 11% (supports long-term expansion) Dividend Yield: 9.1% (solid passive income potential) Dividend Payout Ratio: 42% (balanced between growth & shareholder returns) DCF-Based Valuation Breakdown Base FCF: Rs. 2,258.66 Mn (strong cash flow foundation) Discount Rate: 12% (reflecting conservative risk assumptions) Terminal Growth Rate: 2% (aligned with economic conditions) Projected FCF Growth: CAGR 11.49% (consistent growth trajectory) Final Verdict: STRONG BUY Intrinsic Value (Rs. 1,561.93) is over 5x the CMP (Rs. 295) , making this stock a deep value opportunity.

Sampath Bank PLC, one of Sri Lanka’s leading commercial banks, appears to be significantly undervalued based on intrinsic valuation models. Our analysis, incorporating the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Excess Capital Model, and Adjusted Book Value + ROE Growth, suggests a weighted intrinsic value of Rs. 176.35 per share compared to its current market price of Rs. 121.5. This indicates a 31.1% margin of safety , signaling a compelling investment opportunity.

⛔️ Overvalued Alert: This Stock is a Strong Sell ⛔️ Intrinsic Value per Share (DCF-based): Rs. 14.25 Current Market Price (CMP): Rs. 37.4 Overvaluation: CMP exceeds intrinsic value by 162% Key Risks and Red Flags Chronic Negative Free Cash Flow 7 out of the last 11 years show negative Free Cash Flow (FCF). Cumulative FCF: -Rs. 29,823 Mn over the past decade.

Panasian Power Plc INTRODUCTION Panasian power plc is a pioneering supplier of clean and renewable energy which commenced operations in 2002 and has since become a leader in the renewable energy industry. PAP produces clean renewable energy from hydro, solar and other renewables sources in Asia and Africa.

Browns Investments PLC, a subsidiary of LOLC Holdings PLC, is poised for exceptional performance in the coming years, driven by a confluence of strategic advantages and favorable market conditions. Diversified Portfolio and Strategic Investments: Browns Investments boasts a diversified portfolio spanning key sectors of the Sri Lankan economy, including leisure, agriculture, plantations, construction, and real estate.

After conducting a detailed analysis, I’ve determined that CIC.X is currently undervalued, with the current market price at Rs. 67.90. Using multiple valuation methods, I calculated the following intrinsic values: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Rs. 76.99 Graham’s Valuation: Rs. 207.17 EPS-Based Valuation: Rs. 347.00 DPS-Based Valuation: Rs. 198.00 By consolidating these methods, the intrinsic value I arrived at is Rs. 172.43, significantly higher than the current price.