Grid Bottlenecks And DER Adoption Will Imperil Long-term Prospects

Key Takeaways

• Grid capacity limits, regulatory obstacles, and demographic trends may restrict future revenue growth, despite optimistic demand forecasts and high current profitability.
  
• Market liberalization, increased competition, and rising distributed energy adoption threaten margins, customer retention, and the stability of long-term earnings.
  
• Strong growth in clean electricity demand, disciplined capital management, and alignment with EU policy bolster long-term profitability and resilient shareholder returns amid regulatory negotiations.

Catalysts

Engages in the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity in Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Singapore, Italy, Morocco, and internationally.

• Investor expectations for sustained above-trend growth in electricity demand and electrification, supported by a post-crisis rebound, data center expansion, and increased industrial/service demand, may prove overoptimistic given structural limits in grid capacity, network connection bottlenecks (with 80% of medium/high-voltage requests rejected due to lack of capacity), and longer-term demographic/economic headwinds-potentially capping future revenue growth.
  
• Elevated valuation appears to be pricing in full realization of major grid reinforcement and modernization, but regulatory uncertainty and a newly proposed investment remuneration framework bias against capital expenditure may critically constrain Endesa's ability to deliver the scale of upgrades needed for long-term demand support, posing downside risk to both capital deployment and long-run revenue/earnings growth.
  
• Consensus seems to assume stable or expanding net margins, yet ongoing market liberalization and aggressive new entrants are driving high customer churn (350,000 lost YTD), squeezing retail competitiveness and risking margin compression, while forthcoming European efficiency policies may further pressure volumetric growth and net margins.
  
• The market appears to be discounting the impact of accelerating distributed energy resource (DER) adoption (rooftop solar, batteries) and prosumer growth, which could structurally erode centralized utility revenues and undermine future top-line growth, especially as higher grid costs incentivize self-generation and reduce reliance on incumbent networks.
  
• High current profitability, benefitting from extraordinary items (e.g., elimination of the 1.2% tax, favorable hedging, spikes in ancillary services costs), is unlikely to be sustained as these tailwinds normalize; combined with potential downward pressure on wholesale power prices from rising renewable penetration, this may drive medium-term EBITDA and earnings below current elevated market expectations.

Endesa Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Endesa's revenue will grow by 4.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 9.9% today to 8.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €2.0 billion (and earnings per share of €1.96) by about July 2028, down from €2.1 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as €1.8 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 16.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from 12.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Electric Utilities industry at 15.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.35% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.29%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Endesa Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Strong growth in electricity demand, including a significant and earlier-than-expected inflection point (especially in industrial and data center consumption), supports stable or increasing revenues and reduces long-term risk of volumetric decline.
  
• Resilient operating and financial performance, with EBITDA up 12% and net income up 30%, along with strong cash generation and ongoing share buybacks, demonstrate effective capital discipline and preserve attractive net margins and earnings.
  
• Spain's leadership and continued progress in decarbonization, with nearly 80% of Endesa's mainland generation mix now emission-free and ongoing grid modernization, aligns the company with EU policy trends and secures revenue opportunities and regulatory support.
  
• Regulatory framework remains subject to ongoing negotiation, but management expresses strong confidence that fair, attractive remuneration for grid investments will be achieved after consultation-unlocking significant CapEx, modernizing infrastructure, and sustaining future profitability.
  
• High and sustained shareholder returns via attractive dividend policy, executed share buyback programs, and a clear commitment to long-term value creation, enhance total shareholder return and support share price resilience even in uncertain regulatory environments.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €26.2 for Endesa based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €30.2, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €20.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €24.4 billion, earnings will come to €2.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 16.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.3%.
  
• Given the current share price of €25.64, the analyst price target of €26.2 is 2.1% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.