Spanish Investing Ideas

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US$65
FV
26.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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€90.72
37.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
15.4% p.a.
Profit Margin
17%
Future PE
18x
Price in 2031
€129.17
€6.9
53.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
9.07%
Future PE
24.03x
Price in 2031
€14.1
€65.9
24.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
14.6% p.a.
Profit Margin
21.01%
Future PE
15.4x
Price in 2029
€86.03
RJF logo
Laboratorio Reig Jofre

Laboratorio Reig Jofre will experience a revenue boost of 8.51%

Situación financiera sólida : Patrimonio neto > 60% del balance, deuda controlada. Beneficio coyunturalmente bajo : impacto no estructural.Read more

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€3.29
18.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
12.01% p.a.
Profit Margin
1.89%
Future PE
37.12x
Price in 2029
€4.09
€46.22
18.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
7% p.a.
Profit Margin
16%
Future PE
25x
Price in 2031
€70.71
€19
3.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5.88% p.a.
Profit Margin
55.51%
Future PE
13.65x
Price in 2029
€24.44
€7.14
24.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
8% p.a.
Profit Margin
10%
Future PE
10x
Price in 2030
€11.03
MRL logo
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI

The future of Merlin lies in the management of data centers.

Merlin Propiertis is a Spanish REIT with 4 lines of business: 1. Bureaux 2.Read more

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€19.38
23.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
15% p.a.
Profit Margin
90%
Future PE
20x
Price in 2030
€24.73