1. Revenue Growth
HOCHTIEF will continue to concentrate on cutting‑edge construction technology (Turner) as well as energy‑transition and infrastructure projects (CIMIC, Engineering & Construction). Backed by an order backlog of approximately €67 billion at the end of 2024 and robust new orders of around €42 billion during 2024, the Group achieves an average 9 % p.a. revenue CAGR through 2029, reaching about €51.3 billion in annual sales.
2. Margin Improvement
Efficiency gains from digitalization, cross‑selling across segments and a more attractive project mix drive the PBT margin from 3.0 % in 2024 to roughly 3.8 % by 2029. On an EBITDA basis, margins improve from approximately 5.6 % to about 6.5 % over the same period.
3. Earnings per Share (EPS)
After a 15 % effective tax rate, the Group delivers roughly €1.65 billion in net profit in 2029, equivalent to an EPS of €21.3 (assuming 77.7 million shares outstanding).
4. Valuation (P/E Multiple)
As HOCHTIEF’s earnings profile becomes more stable and ESG credentials strengthen, the market affords the stock a modest valuation uplift from today’s ~12.6× P/E to 14.0× by the end of 2029. Multiplying that multiple by the projected EPS yields a target share price of around €298.
Summary Narrative
By 2029, HOCHTIEF has grown its top line to over €50 billion, boosted its PBT margin toward 4 %, and doubled its EPS to about €21. A slight expansion in the P/E multiple to 14× produces a fair value near €298 per share. This scenario relies solely on internal trends and conservative assumptions; external shocks or bolt‑on acquisitions could push the outcome higher or lower
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
The user Chris1 holds no position in XTRA:HOT. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
