Automobiles German Community

Porsche (P911) is a profitability and cash flow leader among luxury car stocks (incl. mass luxury), right behind Ferrari (the latter being grossly overvalued from an intrinsic value point of view).Read more

A new reality is taking shape at Volkswagen. The German auto giant is in the midst of a major financial turnaround that will redefine its valuation.Read more

Based on my research, here's a brief fundamental analysis and DCF valuation of Porsche Automobil Holding SE (PAH3): Fundamental Analysis Business Model: Porsche SE is a holding company that owns 52.2% of Volkswagen AG (including 12 brands: Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Ducati, Lamborghini, MAN, Porsche, Scania, SEAT, ŠKODA, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles and Volkswagen Passenger Cars) and has investments in mobility and industrial technology 2024 Financial Performance: Profit after tax: €2.51 billion (9M 2024), down 34% YoY from €3.8 billion 2024 full-year profit forecast: €2.4-4.4 billion range Net debt projected: €5.0-5.5 billion by year-end 2024 2024 dividend: €1.910 per preferred share, €1.904 per ordinary share Key Challenges: Expected significant non-cash impairment losses on VW and Porsche AG investments for 2024, making group result after tax significantly negative Trading at 29.8% discount to NAV Heavy reliance on dividends from VW and Porsche AG for debt servicing DCF Valuation Current Market Data: Current stock price: €36.77 (as of April 28, 2025) Analyst average price target: €45.78 (range: €35-78) DCF Analysis: PAH3's DCF value cannot be reliably calculated due to the holding company structure and irregular cash flow patterns. However, alternative valuation approaches suggest: Intrinsic value estimate: $6.849 USD (€6.40 approx.) - shows 26% undervaluation based on multiples-only approach Analyst consensus implies 31.74% upside potential to €45.78 Investment Thesis: Strengths: Exposure to leading automotive brands, solid dividend history, trading at discount to NAV Risks: High leverage (€5.3B net debt), impairment charges, dependence on underlying holdings' performance Conclusion: PAH3 appears undervalued at current levels, but traditional DCF valuation is challenging due to its holding company structure.Read more

Mercedes is a very healthy company, has built a good brand and dominates in most parts of Europe. The more recent years decline in earnings can be attributed to pressure to switch to electric cars, as well as increase in competition and economic downturn of recent years.Read more

It is one of the three biggest carmakers in the world, with a dominant market share of some 21 per cent in its home market - which actually grew in the recent past. Yet both from a strategic and a global perspective, the Wolfsburgers are under marked pressure.Read more

Catalysts Most Immediate Catalysts (1–2 Years) Strong EV Expansion: BMW’s iX, i4, and upcoming Neue Klasse EVs are set to drive revenue growth as the EV transition accelerates. Luxury & Premium Market Strength: The high-end market remains resilient, supporting BMW’s strong pricing power and margins.Read more

Key Takeaways Rapid growth and local optimization in EV and hybrid markets position Volkswagen for faster-than-expected revenue and margin expansion, especially in Europe and China. Autonomous mobility, digital services, and asset monetization offer major new high-margin revenue streams, supporting stronger profitability and shareholder returns.Read more

Key Takeaways Overly optimistic growth and margin expectations may overlook flat sales, operational pressures, and persistent volatility in key regions and product segments. Execution risks, restructuring costs, and reliance on ongoing innovation could constrain profitability and earnings despite widespread market enthusiasm.Read more

Key Takeaways Early-than-expected European market recovery and defense sector demand point to significant near-term revenue and margin upside. Strategic investments and recent acquisitions position the company for long-term growth, higher operating leverage, and enhanced geographic diversification.Read more