Automobiles German Community

Porsche (P911) is a profitability and cash flow leader among luxury car stocks (incl. mass luxury), right behind Ferrari (the latter being grossly overvalued from an intrinsic value point of view).Read more

Based on my research, here's a brief fundamental analysis and DCF valuation of Porsche Automobil Holding SE (PAH3): Fundamental Analysis Business Model: Porsche SE is a holding company that owns 52.2% of Volkswagen AG (including 12 brands: Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Ducati, Lamborghini, MAN, Porsche, Scania, SEAT, ŠKODA, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles and Volkswagen Passenger Cars) and has investments in mobility and industrial technology 2024 Financial Performance: Profit after tax: €2.51 billion (9M 2024), down 34% YoY from €3.8 billion 2024 full-year profit forecast: €2.4-4.4 billion range Net debt projected: €5.0-5.5 billion by year-end 2024 2024 dividend: €1.910 per preferred share, €1.904 per ordinary share Key Challenges: Expected significant non-cash impairment losses on VW and Porsche AG investments for 2024, making group result after tax significantly negative Trading at 29.8% discount to NAV Heavy reliance on dividends from VW and Porsche AG for debt servicing DCF Valuation Current Market Data: Current stock price: €36.77 (as of April 28, 2025) Analyst average price target: €45.78 (range: €35-78) DCF Analysis: PAH3's DCF value cannot be reliably calculated due to the holding company structure and irregular cash flow patterns. However, alternative valuation approaches suggest: Intrinsic value estimate: $6.849 USD (€6.40 approx.) - shows 26% undervaluation based on multiples-only approach Analyst consensus implies 31.74% upside potential to €45.78 Investment Thesis: Strengths: Exposure to leading automotive brands, solid dividend history, trading at discount to NAV Risks: High leverage (€5.3B net debt), impairment charges, dependence on underlying holdings' performance Conclusion: PAH3 appears undervalued at current levels, but traditional DCF valuation is challenging due to its holding company structure.Read more

It is one of the three biggest carmakers in the world, with a dominant market share of some 21 per cent in its home market - which actually grew in the recent past. Yet both from a strategic and a global perspective, the Wolfsburgers are under marked pressure.Read more

Catalysts Most Immediate Catalysts (1–2 Years) Strong EV Expansion: BMW’s iX, i4, and upcoming Neue Klasse EVs are set to drive revenue growth as the EV transition accelerates. Luxury & Premium Market Strength: The high-end market remains resilient, supporting BMW’s strong pricing power and margins.Read more

Key Takeaways Expansion in premium EV segments and strong customer pipeline positions Novem for long-term growth and improved revenue stability. Operational improvements and investments in automation and capacity upgrades are expected to enhance margins and free cash flow.Read more

Key Takeaways Expansion into electric vehicles, digital platforms, and advanced in-car technologies is expected to support premium pricing, recurring revenues, and long-term earnings growth. Operational efficiency, supply chain optimization, and sustainability initiatives aim to strengthen cost resilience, net margins, and adaptability to shifting industry dynamics.Read more

Key Takeaways Expansion in electrified mobility and adoption of high-value, energy-efficient components are driving revenue growth, gross margin improvement, and premium segment positioning. Enhanced scale, cost efficiency, and growing aftermarket services are set to boost earnings quality, net margins, and recurring revenue streams.Read more

Key Takeaways Expansion in advanced automotive technologies and digital mobility solutions is strengthening Continental's order pipeline and driving higher-margin, recurring revenue opportunities. Strategic cost optimization and effective market positioning are boosting profitability and setting the stage for sustainable long-term growth.Read more

Key Takeaways Expansion in electrified vehicles and digital services positions Volkswagen for growth, supported by operational restructuring and focus on premium, high-return markets. Enhanced local production, partnerships, and cost optimization reduce geopolitical risks and enable margin recovery with new recurring revenue streams improving profitability resilience.Read more