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US$65
FV
13.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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CHF 91.08
6.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
2% p.a.
Profit Margin
13%
Future PE
22x
Price in 2031
CHF 110.51
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Bachem Holding

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CHF 249.99
71.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
62.01% p.a.
Profit Margin
21.41%
Future PE
34.2x
Price in 2029
CHF 286.91
CHF 430.01
25.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
6.77% p.a.
Profit Margin
20.33%
Future PE
23.15x
Price in 2031
CHF 0
CHF 680
0.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
8.14% p.a.
Profit Margin
30%
Future PE
19x
Price in 2031
CHF 860.71
CHF 353.34
5.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5% p.a.
Profit Margin
20%
Future PE
21x
Price in 2031
CHF 428.73
CHF 103.55
17.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
1.98% p.a.
Profit Margin
11.78%
Future PE
27x
Price in 2035
CHF 158.69
CHF 302.06
6.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5.07% p.a.
Profit Margin
17.53%
Future PE
21.07x
Price in 2030
CHF 359.58