Last Update23 Sep 25
🪙 Argenta Silver – Updated Snapshot (Late-2025)
Latest official info
- Shares Outstanding (basic): ~254,329,377 common shares. (argentasilver.com)
- Options outstanding: ~15,938,000 shares. (argentasilver.com)
- Warrants: ~29,077,950 shares. (argentasilver.com)
- Fully Diluted Shares: ~299,345,327 shares. (argentasilver.com)
- Resource (El Quevar, Indicated + Inferred): ~45.3 million oz silver (Indicated) @ ~482 g/t silver; ~4.1 million oz silver (Inferred) @ ~417 g/t. (argentasilver.com)
- Working Capital / Cash Position: ~C$24 million in working capital; zero debt. (argentasilver.com)
⚠️ Risks
- Cost / AISC unknown: No published AISC yet for full El Quevar restart. Assumptions might prove optimistic.
- Dilution risk: To fund exploration, PEA / construction, more financing likely required.
- Timeline delays: Drilling, PEA, permitting, construction are multi-step; delays are common.
- Resource conversion: “Inferred” ounces may not all convert to reserves or be economic.
- Commodity price risk: Silver price highly impact FCF; drops reduce upside sharply.
- Permitting & jurisdiction: Argentina has been improving, but policy / social / environmental risks remain.
- Execution risk: Even with high grades, underground mine builds have risks of cost overrun, metallurgical / recovery issues.
⚡ Catalysts
- Publication of a PEA and/or PFS that confirms cost, production profile, and capex.
- Expansion of resource beyond current ~50M oz through drilling (especially converting inferred to indicated).
- Securing project financing / strategic partner / offtake agreements.
- Permitting progress: environmental, access, local community engagement etc.
- Rising silver (and gold) prices.
- Insiders & major shareholders increasing their exposure / showing confidence.
🗺️ Risks & Catalysts Mapped to Timeline
2025 🚧 Risks: Costs underestimation in feasibility studies; delays in PEA; limited working capital. ⚡ Catalysts: Resource updates; PEA or study releases; small financing or private placement; drill results enhancing resource.
2026–2027 🚧 Risks: Construction delays; ability to raise capital for build; regulatory / infrastructure issues. ⚡ Catalysts: Decision to build; permits in place; cost estimates refined; build-out begins.
2028+ 🚧 Risks: Sustaining operations; maintaining grade & recovery; silver market weakness. ⚡ Catalysts: Producing mine; cash flow; possibly expanding beyond baseline resource; re-rating by market.
📊 Valuation Scenarios (using Fully Diluted Shares ~299,345,327; assume AISC = US$30/oz AgEq as more conservative)
Assumptions:
- Production base case: 3 million oz/year AgEq from El Quevar.
- Upside case: 5 million oz/year (with expansion).
- AISC = US$30/oz (placeholder; actual might be lower or higher).
Scenario A: Silver = US$100/oz
- Margin/oz = 100 − 30 = US$70/oz
- Annual FCF (3M oz) = 3,000,000 × 70 = US$210M • 10× → US$2.10B → per share ≈ US$7.02/sh • 15× → US$3.15B → ≈ US$10.53/sh • 20× → US$4.20B → ≈ US$14.05/sh
- Upside (5M oz) = 5,000,000 × 70 = US$350M • 10× → US$3.50B → ≈ US$11.70/sh • 15× → US$5.25B → ≈ US$17.55/sh • 20× → US$7.00B → ≈ US$23.40/sh
Scenario B: Silver = US$150/oz
- Margin/oz = 150 − 30 = US$120/oz
- Annual FCF (3M oz) = 3,000,000 × 120 = US$360M • 10× → US$3.60B → per share ≈ US$12.03/sh • 15× → US$5.40B → ≈ US$18.05/sh • 20× → US$7.20B → ≈ US$24.06/sh
- Upside (5M oz) = 5,000,000 × 120 = US$600M • 10× → US$6.00B → ≈ US$20.05/sh • 15× → US$9.00B → ≈ US$30.08/sh • 20× → US$12.00B → ≈ US$40.10/sh
🎯 Conclusion
✅ Recent: ~299.35 million fully diluted shares; good resource base (~45M indicated + ~4M inferred) at El Quevar.
✅ Using conservative AISC = US$30/oz, the base-case 3M oz/year scenario gives per-share values in ~US$7-14 at silver US$100, rising to ~US$12-24 at silver US$150. Upside expansion to 5M oz/year lifts those further (US$11-23 / US$20-40).
⚠ Key swing factors are actual AISC, share dilution, resource conversion, financing, permits, and silver price.
🚀 If everything aligns (strong silver prices, good drilling, efficient study & build), Argenta has meaningful upside from current levels; but it’s more speculative under conservative cost/timing assumptions.
Argenta Silver: Analysis and Valuation
Key Metrics:
El Quevar Project (Argentina):
- Resource:
- High-grade deposit: 450 gpt silver.
- Current size: 48M oz silver.
- Exploration target: 60M+ oz silver.
- Location and Infrastructure:
- Located in the Salta district, one of Argentina's best mining jurisdictions.
- Excellent infrastructure with relatively easy permitting.
- Production Potential:
- Estimated production: ~3M oz annually.
- Exploration success could increase production.
- Development Timeline:
- Drilling for 2 years, PEA expected in ~2026.
- Construction-ready in 3-4 years (~2027).
- Upside Potential:
- High-grade deposit and exploration upside give the project potential for 10x returns.
Ownership:
- Frank Guistra: A major shareholder and prominent investor. His involvement adds credibility and confidence in the company’s potential.
Valuation Scenarios:
1. Base Case ($25 Silver):
- Annual Production: 3M oz.
- FCF per oz: $25 - $15 (estimated AISC) = $10/oz.
- Annual FCF: 3M x $10 = $30M.
- Valuation (10x FCF): $30M x 10 = $300M.
- Stock Price (50M shares): $300M / 50M = $6.00/share.
2. Upside Case ($50 Silver):
- Annual Production: 3M oz.
- FCF per oz: $50 - $15 = $35/oz.
- Annual FCF: 3M x $35 = $105M.
- Valuation (10x FCF): $105M x 10 = $1.05B.
- Stock Price: $1.05B / 50M = $21.00/share.
3. High-End Case ($100 Silver):
- Annual Production: 3M oz.
- FCF per oz: $100 - $15 = $85/oz.
- Annual FCF: 3M x $85 = $255M.
- Valuation (10x FCF): $255M x 10 = $2.55B.
- Stock Price: $2.55B / 50M = $51.00/share.
Investment Thesis:
- High-Grade Resource:
- El Quevar’s 450 gpt grade makes it one of the highest-grade silver projects globally, ensuring profitability at lower silver prices.
- Exploration Upside:
- Significant potential to grow the resource from 48M oz to 60M+ oz, extending mine life and increasing valuation.
- Credible Leadership:
- Frank Guistra’s involvement adds significant credibility and aligns management with shareholders.
- Strategic Location:
- Argentina’s Salta district is known for mining-friendly policies and excellent infrastructure, which reduces permitting risk.
Risks:
- Timeline:
- The project is still in early development, with production likely 3-4 years away.
- Exploration Dependency:
- Success hinges on finding additional resources to support a long mine life.
- Argentina Risk:
- Argentina’s history of economic instability and policy shifts could pose challenges.
Conclusion:
Argenta Silver is an early-stage, high-grade silver play with significant upside potential. The stock could reach:
- $6/share at $25 silver.
- $21/share at $50 silver.
- $51/share at $100 silver.
This makes it a speculative but attractive investment for silver bulls and those willing to wait for long-term development. Frank Guistra’s involvement and the high-grade nature of the project further support its potential as a 10x return opportunity.
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Disclaimer
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