Frank Guistra’s 10 baggers!

Argenta Silver: Analysis and Valuation

Key Metrics:

El Quevar Project (Argentina):

1. Resource:
   • High-grade deposit: 450 gpt silver.
   • Current size: 48M oz silver.
   • Exploration target: 60M+ oz silver.
2. Location and Infrastructure:
   • Located in the Salta district, one of Argentina's best mining jurisdictions.
   • Excellent infrastructure with relatively easy permitting.
3. Production Potential:
   • Estimated production: ~3M oz annually.
   • Exploration success could increase production.
4. Development Timeline:
   • Drilling for 2 years, PEA expected in ~2026.
   • Construction-ready in 3-4 years (~2027).
5. Upside Potential:
   • High-grade deposit and exploration upside give the project potential for 10x returns.

Ownership:

• Frank Guistra: A major shareholder and prominent investor. His involvement adds credibility and confidence in the company’s potential.

Valuation Scenarios:

1. Base Case ($25 Silver):

• Annual Production: 3M oz.
• FCF per oz: $25 - $15 (estimated AISC) = $10/oz.
• Annual FCF: 3M x $10 = $30M.
• Valuation (10x FCF): $30M x 10 = $300M.
• Stock Price (50M shares): $300M / 50M = $6.00/share.

2. Upside Case ($50 Silver):

• Annual Production: 3M oz.
• FCF per oz: $50 - $15 = $35/oz.
• Annual FCF: 3M x $35 = $105M.
• Valuation (10x FCF): $105M x 10 = $1.05B.
• Stock Price: $1.05B / 50M = $21.00/share.

3. High-End Case ($100 Silver):

• Annual Production: 3M oz.
• FCF per oz: $100 - $15 = $85/oz.
• Annual FCF: 3M x $85 = $255M.
• Valuation (10x FCF): $255M x 10 = $2.55B.
• Stock Price: $2.55B / 50M = $51.00/share.

Investment Thesis:

1. High-Grade Resource:
   • El Quevar’s 450 gpt grade makes it one of the highest-grade silver projects globally, ensuring profitability at lower silver prices.
2. Exploration Upside:
   • Significant potential to grow the resource from 48M oz to 60M+ oz, extending mine life and increasing valuation.
3. Credible Leadership:
   • Frank Guistra’s involvement adds significant credibility and aligns management with shareholders.
4. Strategic Location:
   • Argentina’s Salta district is known for mining-friendly policies and excellent infrastructure, which reduces permitting risk.

Risks:

1. Timeline:
   • The project is still in early development, with production likely 3-4 years away.
2. Exploration Dependency:
   • Success hinges on finding additional resources to support a long mine life.
3. Argentina Risk:
   • Argentina’s history of economic instability and policy shifts could pose challenges.

Conclusion:

Argenta Silver is an early-stage, high-grade silver play with significant upside potential. The stock could reach:

• $6/share at $25 silver.
• $21/share at $50 silver.
• $51/share at $100 silver.

This makes it a speculative but attractive investment for silver bulls and those willing to wait for long-term development. Frank Guistra’s involvement and the high-grade nature of the project further support its potential as a 10x return opportunity.