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🪙 Argenta Silver – Updated Snapshot (Late-2025)

Latest official info

• Shares Outstanding (basic): ~254,329,377 common shares. (argentasilver.com)
• Options outstanding: ~15,938,000 shares. (argentasilver.com)
• Warrants: ~29,077,950 shares. (argentasilver.com)
• Fully Diluted Shares: ~299,345,327 shares. (argentasilver.com)
• Resource (El Quevar, Indicated + Inferred): ~45.3 million oz silver (Indicated) @ ~482 g/t silver; ~4.1 million oz silver (Inferred) @ ~417 g/t. (argentasilver.com)
• Working Capital / Cash Position: ~C$24 million in working capital; zero debt. (argentasilver.com)

⚠️ Risks

• Cost / AISC unknown: No published AISC yet for full El Quevar restart. Assumptions might prove optimistic.
• Dilution risk: To fund exploration, PEA / construction, more financing likely required.
• Timeline delays: Drilling, PEA, permitting, construction are multi-step; delays are common.
• Resource conversion: “Inferred” ounces may not all convert to reserves or be economic.
• Commodity price risk: Silver price highly impact FCF; drops reduce upside sharply.
• Permitting & jurisdiction: Argentina has been improving, but policy / social / environmental risks remain.
• Execution risk: Even with high grades, underground mine builds have risks of cost overrun, metallurgical / recovery issues.

⚡ Catalysts

• Publication of a PEA and/or PFS that confirms cost, production profile, and capex.
• Expansion of resource beyond current ~50M oz through drilling (especially converting inferred to indicated).
• Securing project financing / strategic partner / offtake agreements.
• Permitting progress: environmental, access, local community engagement etc.
• Rising silver (and gold) prices.
• Insiders & major shareholders increasing their exposure / showing confidence.

🗺️ Risks & Catalysts Mapped to Timeline

2025 🚧 Risks: Costs underestimation in feasibility studies; delays in PEA; limited working capital. ⚡ Catalysts: Resource updates; PEA or study releases; small financing or private placement; drill results enhancing resource.

2026–2027 🚧 Risks: Construction delays; ability to raise capital for build; regulatory / infrastructure issues. ⚡ Catalysts: Decision to build; permits in place; cost estimates refined; build-out begins.

2028+ 🚧 Risks: Sustaining operations; maintaining grade & recovery; silver market weakness. ⚡ Catalysts: Producing mine; cash flow; possibly expanding beyond baseline resource; re-rating by market.

📊 Valuation Scenarios (using Fully Diluted Shares ~299,345,327; assume AISC = US$30/oz AgEq as more conservative)

Assumptions:

• Production base case: 3 million oz/year AgEq from El Quevar.
• Upside case: 5 million oz/year (with expansion).
• AISC = US$30/oz (placeholder; actual might be lower or higher).

Scenario A: Silver = US$100/oz

• Margin/oz = 100 − 30 = US$70/oz
• Annual FCF (3M oz) = 3,000,000 × 70 = US$210M   • 10× → US$2.10B → per share ≈ US$7.02/sh   • 15× → US$3.15B → ≈ US$10.53/sh   • 20× → US$4.20B → ≈ US$14.05/sh
• Upside (5M oz) = 5,000,000 × 70 = US$350M   • 10× → US$3.50B → ≈ US$11.70/sh   • 15× → US$5.25B → ≈ US$17.55/sh   • 20× → US$7.00B → ≈ US$23.40/sh

Scenario B: Silver = US$150/oz

• Margin/oz = 150 − 30 = US$120/oz
• Annual FCF (3M oz) = 3,000,000 × 120 = US$360M   • 10× → US$3.60B → per share ≈ US$12.03/sh   • 15× → US$5.40B → ≈ US$18.05/sh   • 20× → US$7.20B → ≈ US$24.06/sh
• Upside (5M oz) = 5,000,000 × 120 = US$600M   • 10× → US$6.00B → ≈ US$20.05/sh   • 15× → US$9.00B → ≈ US$30.08/sh   • 20× → US$12.00B → ≈ US$40.10/sh

🎯 Conclusion

✅ Recent: ~299.35 million fully diluted shares; good resource base (~45M indicated + ~4M inferred) at El Quevar.

✅ Using conservative AISC = US$30/oz, the base-case 3M oz/year scenario gives per-share values in ~US$7-14 at silver US$100, rising to ~US$12-24 at silver US$150. Upside expansion to 5M oz/year lifts those further (US$11-23 / US$20-40).

⚠ Key swing factors are actual AISC, share dilution, resource conversion, financing, permits, and silver price.

🚀 If everything aligns (strong silver prices, good drilling, efficient study & build), Argenta has meaningful upside from current levels; but it’s more speculative under conservative cost/timing assumptions.