Update shared on18 Sep 2025
🪙 Argenta Silver – Analysis & Valuation
🔑 Key Metrics – El Quevar Project (Argentina)
- Grade: ~450 gpt silver (among the highest undeveloped projects globally).
- Current Resource: ~48M oz silver, with exploration target of 60M+ oz.
- Jurisdiction: Salta Province, Argentina – one of the most mining-friendly regions in the country.
- Production Potential: ~3M oz per year (base assumption).
- Development Timeline: 2 years of drilling plus PEA expected by 2026; construction-ready by around 2027.
- Ownership: Frank Giustra is a major shareholder, providing credibility and financing strength.
💰 Valuation Scenarios (using AISC $20/oz)
At $100 silver:
- Free cash flow per ounce = $80
- Annual free cash flow = 3M oz × $80 = $240M
- At 10× FCF = $2.40B → about $48/share (50M shares)
- At 15× FCF = $3.60B → about $72/share
- At 20× FCF = $4.80B → about $96/share
At $150 silver:
- Free cash flow per ounce = $130
- Annual free cash flow = 3M oz × $130 = $390M
- At 10× FCF = $3.90B → about $78/share (50M shares)
- At 15× FCF = $5.85B → about $117/share
- At 20× FCF = $7.80B → about $156/share
⚠️ Risks
- Development timeline: First production is 3–4 years away.
- Exploration dependency: Need to expand resources to 60M+ oz for long mine life.
- Jurisdiction: Argentina’s history of unstable policies and capital controls.
- Financing: Large capex requirements, potential dilution from equity raises.
- Commodity price: Highly sensitive to silver price changes.
- Operational: Metallurgy, recoveries, and mining costs may vary.
- Liquidity: Early-stage junior with volatile share trading and financing access.
⚡ Catalysts
- Exploration drilling could expand resource beyond 60M oz.
- PEA release expected around 2026, key milestone for valuation.
- Strategic partnerships or institutional investors via Frank Giustra’s network.
- Rising silver prices; each $10 increase adds significant value.
- Permitting progress in Salta between 2026 and 2027.
- Construction decision by ~2027, moving to developer stage.
- M&A potential; majors may seek to acquire high-grade silver projects.
🎯 Conclusion
Argenta Silver’s El Quevar is a high-grade early-stage silver developer with asymmetric upside. At $100 silver, potential valuations reach $48–96/share. At $150 silver, upside expands to $78–156/share. Risks remain in jurisdiction, financing, and development timelines, but the project’s grades, exploration upside, and Frank Giustra’s backing make Argenta one of the most speculative yet potentially explosive silver plays for the next cycle.
Disclaimer
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