Key Assumptions:
- Production (2025): 1.2M oz gold annually.
- Costs: AISC $1,200/oz.
- Gold Price: $4,000/oz.
- FCF Margin: 70%.
- Shares Outstanding: 1.1 billion.
- FCF Multiple: 10x.
Step 1: Revenue Calculation Revenue = Production × Gold Price Revenue = 1,200,000 oz × $4,000 = $4.8B.
Step 2: FCF Calculation FCF = (Gold Price - AISC) × Production FCF = ($4,000 - $1,200) × 1,200,000 = $3.36B.
Step 3: Market Cap Calculation Market Cap = FCF × FCF Multiple Market Cap = $3.36B × 10 = $33.6B.
Step 4: Stock Price Calculation Stock Price = Market Cap / Shares Outstanding Stock Price = $33.6B / 1.1B = $30.55 per share.
Conclusion: At $4,000 gold, B2Gold’s stock price could reach $30.55 per share, assuming production of 1.2M oz, AISC of $1,200, and a 10x FCF multiple.
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Disclaimer
The user RockeTeller holds no position in TSX:BTO. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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