Last Update13 Sep 25
Fair value Increased 38%

Latest info (Q2 2025):

Shares outstanding: ~141.9M
Cash: ~$114M
Debt: ~C$100M
H1 2025 production: ~2.1M oz silver (annualized ~4.2M oz, ramping toward 7M oz target)
Cash costs: ~$20–22/oz (AISC likely a bit higher; I’ll model at $20 and $25/oz).

Scenario 1: Silver = $100/oz

At AISC = $25/oz

Margin per ounce = $100 − $25 = $75
Annual FCF = 7,000,000 × 75 = $525M
Valuation at 10× FCF = $5.25B → $36.99/share
Valuation at 15× FCF = $7.88B → $55.48/share
Valuation at 20× FCF = $10.50B → $73.96/share

At AISC = $20/oz

Margin per ounce = $100 − $20 = $80
Annual FCF = 7,000,000 × 80 = $560M
Valuation at 10× FCF = $5.60B → $39.47/share
Valuation at 15× FCF = $8.40B → $59.20/share
Valuation at 20× FCF = $11.20B → $78.93/share

Scenario 2: Silver = $150/oz

At AISC = $25/oz

Margin per ounce = $150 − $25 = $125
Annual FCF = 7,000,000 × 125 = $875M
Valuation at 10× FCF = $8.75B → $61.68/share
Valuation at 15× FCF = $13.13B → $92.52/share
Valuation at 20× FCF = $17.50B → $123.36/share

At AISC = $20/oz

Margin per ounce = $150 − $20 = $130
Annual FCF = 7,000,000 × 130 = $910M
Valuation at 10× FCF = $9.10B → $64.10/share
Valuation at 15× FCF = $13.65B → $96.15/share
Valuation at 20× FCF = $18.20B → $128.20/share

👉 So, depending on AISC, Aya Gold & Silver at $100/oz silver could trade between $37–$79/share, and at $150/oz silver between $62–$128/share, under 10–20× FCF multiples.

Aya Gold & Silver Valuation at $100/oz Silver

Assumptions

Production Target: 7 million ounces of silver annually from Zgounder.
Silver Price: $100 per ounce.
Total Resources: 100 million ounces of silver.
Shares Outstanding: 135 million.

Revenue Calculation

Annual Revenue = Production × Price Annual Revenue = 7,000,000 × 100 = 700,000,000 USD

Market Capitalization

Using a valuation of $100 per ounce for total resources, we consider:

Market Cap = Total Resources × Value per oz Market Cap = 100,000,000 × 100 = 10,000,000,000 USD

Estimated Stock Price

Stock Price = Market Cap ÷ Shares Outstanding Stock Price = 10,000,000,000 ÷ 135,000,000 = 74.07 USD/share

Summary

If silver reaches $100 per ounce and Aya Gold & Silver successfully produces 7 million ounces annually, the estimated stock price could be around $74.07 per share, based on the value derived from total resources.

This estimate highlights Aya’s significant leverage to higher silver prices and the potential upside in a high-silver scenario.

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Disclaimer

The user RockeTeller has a position in TSX:AYA. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.