AYA: Rising Precious Metal Prices Will Drive Undervalued Shares Despite Short Seller Pressure

Aya Gold & Silver's analyst price target has been raised from about C$23.10 to roughly C$23.65 per share, as analysts factor in higher long term gold and silver price assumptions, along with a richer sector valuation that supports a higher future earnings multiple despite slightly tempered growth and margin forecasts.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research shows a clear tilt toward more constructive views on Aya Gold & Silver, with several bullish analysts marking up their price targets to reflect stronger precious metal price assumptions and improving sector multiples.

Given the largely upbeat tone of the latest research, analysts' perspectives can be consolidated into a single set of key takeaways.

Bullish analysts have lifted their price targets meaningfully, implying additional upside from current levels as higher long term gold and silver price decks drive upward revisions to net asset value and earnings forecasts.
Upgraded commodity price assumptions, including materially higher projected gold and silver prices in 2026 and 2027, support a richer valuation framework for Aya Gold & Silver relative to prior models.
Analysts highlight the company as a prime beneficiary of the recent strength in precious metals, viewing its operating leverage and growth pipeline as well positioned to convert stronger pricing into cash flow and return on capital improvements.
Some bullish commentary notes that part of the recent target increases represent a catch up to the stock's year to date outperformance, which suggests that execution will need to remain solid to justify further multiple expansion.
A few more cautious analysts flag that expectations for sustained elevated metal prices and robust margins are now embedded in forecasts, which could leave the shares vulnerable to sentiment shifts if pricing normalizes or project delivery slips.

What's in the News

Blue Orca Capital disclosed a short position in Aya Gold & Silver, alleging that the company overstated its Zgounder silver resource by more than 100%, raising questions about reserve quality and disclosure practices (periodical).
Aya reported a sharp increase in silver production, with 1.35 million ounces produced in the third quarter of 2025 and 3.46 million ounces over the first nine months, roughly tripling year over year and underscoring rapid operational scaling at Zgounder (Key Developments).
At Boumadine, Aya announced its strongest mineralized intercept to date and the discovery of a new high grade parallel structure, reinforcing the project's potential scale and supporting expectations for continued resource growth (Key Developments).
The company began commercial production from a historical pyrite concentrate stockpile at Boumadine, targeting about 2.5 million silver equivalent ounces over 20 to 24 months while reducing the site's legacy environmental footprint (Key Developments).
Aya updated the Boumadine mineral resource estimate used in its PEA. The update incorporated extensive drilling, modern CIM compliant methods, and detailed economic and metallurgical assumptions, laying groundwork for higher long term production and a more robust life of mine plan (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Increased modestly from approximately CA$23.08 to about CA$23.65 per share, reflecting higher long term precious metal price assumptions and richer sector multiples.
Discount Rate: Edged up slightly from roughly 7.20% to about 7.25%, implying a marginally higher required return for valuing future cash flows.
Revenue Growth: Reduced from around 35.1% to approximately 32.2%, indicating somewhat more conservative expectations for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: Lowered meaningfully from about 42.7% to roughly 36.8%, signaling tempered expectations for future profitability and operating leverage.
Future P/E: Raised significantly from roughly 24.5x to about 31.7x, suggesting a higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings despite softer growth and margin forecasts.

Ramp-up success at Zgounder and ongoing exploration are driving higher production, lower costs, and setting the stage for sustained revenue and earnings growth.
Favorable market trends and Aya's strong financial position support aggressive investment in Morocco, enhancing stability, profitability, and long-term project visibility.
High operational and geopolitical risks, heavy reliance on Moroccan assets, and limited diversification threaten profitability amid volatile costs, regulatory challenges, and global silver market fluctuations.

Catalysts

About Aya Gold & Silver

Engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The ramp-up of the Zgounder mine is now largely complete, with processing capacity exceeding nameplate and plant recoveries reaching ~92%, positioning Aya to deliver meaningfully higher silver production and lower unit costs as operational improvements are sustained. This should result in higher revenues and expanded net margins going forward.
Aya's exploration success at both Zgounder and Boumadine, combined with ongoing property acquisition and aggressive regional drilling programs, is poised to drive significant long-term growth in reserves and production volumes, supporting multi-year revenue and earnings expansion.
The upcoming Boumadine PEA (scheduled for Q4 2025) is expected to establish Boumadine as a Tier 1 asset and set the stage for transformational growth, expanding Aya's production profile and potentially attracting a higher valuation relative to peers with less project visibility, ultimately improving future cash flow and profitability.
Broader global demand for silver, supported by accelerating electrification and renewable energy adoption-including increased use in solar panels and electronics-positions Aya to leverage favorable pricing and sustained sales growth as a primary silver producer, directly impacting long-term revenues and margins.
Aya's strong financial position, disciplined cost management, and single-country focus in Morocco (with a streamlined permitting regime and strong local relationships) provide the flexibility to invest aggressively in growth projects and weather market volatility, improving earnings stability and long-term profitability.

Aya Gold & Silver Earnings and Revenue Growth

Aya Gold & Silver Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Aya Gold & Silver's revenue will grow by 42.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -11.0% today to 34.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $92.6 million (and earnings per share of $0.49) by about September 2028, up from $-10.2 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 32.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from -147.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the CA Metals and Mining industry at 18.0x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.54%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Aya Gold & Silver Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent issues with ore grade dilution and the need for operational improvements in both open pit and underground mining risk ongoing lower grades and higher costs, which can negatively impact Aya Gold & Silver's net margins and future earnings if not fully resolved.
Heavy reliance on Moroccan assets, despite first-mover advantage, exposes Aya to increased jurisdictional and geopolitical risk; any regional instability, regulatory change, or permitting delays could disrupt operations and lead to reduced revenue or increased costs.
Ambitious exploration and expansion plans, including significant investments in Boumadine and extensive drilling programs, require sustained capital and successful resource conversion; failure to make new economically viable discoveries or to rapidly convert resources may result in diluted returns or increased capital expenditure impacting free cash flow.
The company's focus on silver, with relatively limited diversification and a small project pipeline outside Morocco, makes its revenues particularly susceptible to volatile global silver prices and demand trends.
Global mining cost inflation, increasing ESG compliance requirements, and potential technical/metallurgical challenges (particularly at Boumadine, where the ultimate economic viability hinges on successful processing innovations like roasting) could elevate operating costs and delay project timelines, thereby eroding profitability and limiting earnings growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$19.527 for Aya Gold & Silver based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$22.12, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$12.57.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $266.9 million, earnings will come to $92.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 32.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.5%.
Given the current share price of CA$14.59, the analyst price target of CA$19.53 is 25.3% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.