AYA: Rising Precious Metal Prices Will Drive Undervalued Shares Despite Short Seller Pressure

Aya Gold & Silver's analyst price target has been raised from about C$23.10 to roughly C$23.65 per share, as analysts factor in higher long term gold and silver price assumptions, along with a richer sector valuation that supports a higher future earnings multiple despite slightly tempered growth and margin forecasts.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research shows a clear tilt toward more constructive views on Aya Gold & Silver, with several bullish analysts marking up their price targets to reflect stronger precious metal price assumptions and improving sector multiples.

Given the largely upbeat tone of the latest research, analysts' perspectives can be consolidated into a single set of key takeaways.

• Bullish analysts have lifted their price targets meaningfully, implying additional upside from current levels as higher long term gold and silver price decks drive upward revisions to net asset value and earnings forecasts.
• Upgraded commodity price assumptions, including materially higher projected gold and silver prices in 2026 and 2027, support a richer valuation framework for Aya Gold & Silver relative to prior models.
• Analysts highlight the company as a prime beneficiary of the recent strength in precious metals, viewing its operating leverage and growth pipeline as well positioned to convert stronger pricing into cash flow and return on capital improvements.
• Some bullish commentary notes that part of the recent target increases represent a catch up to the stock's year to date outperformance, which suggests that execution will need to remain solid to justify further multiple expansion.
• A few more cautious analysts flag that expectations for sustained elevated metal prices and robust margins are now embedded in forecasts, which could leave the shares vulnerable to sentiment shifts if pricing normalizes or project delivery slips.

What's in the News

• Blue Orca Capital disclosed a short position in Aya Gold & Silver, alleging that the company overstated its Zgounder silver resource by more than 100%, raising questions about reserve quality and disclosure practices (periodical).
• Aya reported a sharp increase in silver production, with 1.35 million ounces produced in the third quarter of 2025 and 3.46 million ounces over the first nine months, roughly tripling year over year and underscoring rapid operational scaling at Zgounder (Key Developments).
• At Boumadine, Aya announced its strongest mineralized intercept to date and the discovery of a new high grade parallel structure, reinforcing the project's potential scale and supporting expectations for continued resource growth (Key Developments).
• The company began commercial production from a historical pyrite concentrate stockpile at Boumadine, targeting about 2.5 million silver equivalent ounces over 20 to 24 months while reducing the site's legacy environmental footprint (Key Developments).
• Aya updated the Boumadine mineral resource estimate used in its PEA. The update incorporated extensive drilling, modern CIM compliant methods, and detailed economic and metallurgical assumptions, laying groundwork for higher long term production and a more robust life of mine plan (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Increased modestly from approximately CA$23.08 to about CA$23.65 per share, reflecting higher long term precious metal price assumptions and richer sector multiples.
• Discount Rate: Edged up slightly from roughly 7.20% to about 7.25%, implying a marginally higher required return for valuing future cash flows.
• Revenue Growth: Reduced from around 35.1% to approximately 32.2%, indicating somewhat more conservative expectations for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Lowered meaningfully from about 42.7% to roughly 36.8%, signaling tempered expectations for future profitability and operating leverage.
• Future P/E: Raised significantly from roughly 24.5x to about 31.7x, suggesting a higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings despite softer growth and margin forecasts.