The Digital Gatekeeper: Objective Corp's Iron Grip on Government

Objective Corp is the unseen operating system for modern government. From local councils to federal agencies in Australia, NZ, and the UK, its software manages the critical documents, regulations, and processes that public services depend on. This isn't just another software provider; it's a deeply embedded partner. As we found in their FY25 Annual Report, their revenue is overwhelmingly recurring and customer relationships span decades, creating an incredibly sticky and predictable business that quietly compounds in the background.

### Catalysts 🚀

• Product Expansion: OCL is brilliantly executing a "land and expand" strategy. They don't just sell one product; they embed themselves in a government department and then cross-sell new, high-value modules like Objective Build (for infrastructure projects) and Objective RegWorks (for regulatory compliance). This is a powerful, low-risk driver for organic growth.
• Industry Tailwind: The global push for government digitization is a non-negotiable, multi-decade trend. As confirmed in their latest investor presentation, the addressable market is enormous, and OCL is a trusted specialist in a field where reputation is everything. They are selling the shovels in a digital gold rush.

### Assumptions 🎯

• 5-Year Revenue: I project revenue to reach ~A$256 million in five years. This assumes a conservative 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), slightly below their current 11% growth rate found in the FY25 report. This is driven by the stickiness of government contracts and the continued uptake of new product modules.
• 5-Year Earnings: I expect EBITDA to reach ~A$90 million. As a mature software company, OCL has significant operating leverage. As revenue grows, I anticipate their EBITDA margin will expand from ~30% today to a best-in-class ~35%.

### Risks 📉

• Execution Risk: The primary risk is that the adoption of their newer products is slower than expected. Government sales cycles can be notoriously long and subject to budget constraints or political changes.
• Competitor Risk: While their moat is deep, they operate in a world with giants like Microsoft and Oracle. However, OCL's decades of specialization in the unique, complex workflows of government gives them a powerful competitive edge that larger, more generalized players struggle to replicate.

### Valuation 💰 (EV/EBITDA multiple)

• 5-Year Outlook: In five years, OCL will be a larger, more profitable, and even more entrenched business. I forecast A$256M in revenue with 35% EBITDA margins.
• Future Multiple: As a high-quality SaaS business with a defensive earnings stream, it should retain a premium valuation. I expect it to trade at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 20-25x.
• Implied Valuation: This points to a potential Enterprise Value of ~A$2.0 billion in five years, offering substantial upside from its current valuation.
• Fair Value Price: Our calculated current intrinsic value is A$17.68 per share.