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To estimate the potential stock price of Barton Gold if they achieve their production targets and gold prices reach $3,000 per oz, we’ll break down the numbers based on your provided details.
### Assumptions and Inputs
1. Production Estimates:
- Tarcoola Production: 40,000 oz annually starting in 2026.
- Tunkillia Production: Targeting 130,000 oz annually.
2. Free Cash Flow (FCF) Calculation:
- Tarcoola: At $3,000 gold and $1,600 AISC:
\[
\text{FCF}_{Tarcoola} = 40,000 \times (3,000 - 1,600) = 40,000 \times 1,400 = 56,000,000 \text{ USD}
\]
- Tunkillia: At $3,000 gold and $1,600 AISC:
\[
\text{FCF}_{Tunkillia} = 130,000 \times (3,000 - 1,600) = 130,000 \times 1,400 = 182,000,000 \text{ USD}
\]
3. Total Free Cash Flow:
\[
\text{Total FCF} = \text{FCF}_{Tarcoola} + \text{FCF}_{Tunkillia} = 56,000,000 + 182,000,000 = 238,000,000 \text{ USD}
\]
### Market Cap Calculation
1. Assumed Price-to-FCF Ratio: Valuing the company at a multiple of 10 times FCF:
\[
\text{Market Cap} = 238,000,000 \times 10 = 2,380,000,000 \text{ USD}
\]
2. Shares Outstanding: Assuming approximately 100 million shares (adjust as necessary based on current figures):
\[
\text{Stock Price} = \frac{\text{Market Cap}}{\text{Shares Outstanding}} = \frac{2,380,000,000}{100,000,000} \approx 23.80 \text{ USD/share}
\]
### Conclusion
If Barton Gold successfully reaches their production targets and gold prices rise to $3,000 per oz, the estimated stock price could be around $23.80 per share based on the calculated free cash flow and market cap. This potential reflects significant upside given the current market conditions and their strategic positioning.
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