Treasury Wine Estates

Market Challenges And Renewed Focus Will Shape Wine Industry Outlook

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

23 Feb 25

Updated

10 Dec 25

Views

601

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

-52.5%

7D

-2.7%

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1Y

-52.5%

7D

-2.7%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 11 10:10 PM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

AU$7.4826.6% undervalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 10 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 4.79%

TWE: Future Margin Resilience Will Support Upside Despite Lower Growth Assumptions

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Treasury Wine Estates to approximately $7.48 from about $7.86 per share. This reflects more cautious assumptions on revenue growth and profit margins, while the discount rate and future valuation multiples remain broadly unchanged.

Shared on 26 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 0.22%

TWE: Index Exclusions Will Be Offset By Improving Profit Margins

Analysts have modestly lowered their price target for Treasury Wine Estates to $7.86 from $7.87. They cite expectations of slightly slower revenue growth, despite stable discount rates and a marginal improvement in profit margin forecasts.

Shared on 10 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 0.41%

TWE: Future U S Market Stabilization Will Support Earnings Recovery

Analysts have lowered their price target for Treasury Wine Estates from A$10.75 to A$8.70, citing ongoing challenges in the U.S. market and signs of weakness in China. These factors are expected to make the next financial year difficult for the company.

Shared on 27 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 18%

Analysts have lowered their price target for Treasury Wine Estates from A$10.75 to A$8.70. They cited concerns over a softer U.S. market and ongoing challenges for the company’s Penfolds brand in China.

Shared on 13 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 2.57%

Treasury Wine Estates' analyst consensus price target has been lowered from A$10.75 to A$8.70. Analysts cite ongoing challenges in the U.S. market and continued weakness in Penfolds China as key factors behind the revised outlook.

Shared on 04 Sep 25

Analysts have lowered their outlook on Treasury Wine Estates citing ongoing U.S. market softness, weaker Penfolds sales in China, and continued challenging conditions into FY26, resulting in a maintained but more cautiously framed consensus price target of A$9.85. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts highlight ongoing softness in the U.S. market impacting revenue expectations.

Shared on 01 May 25

Fair value Decreased 25%

Shared on 23 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 17 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 1.08%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 1.96%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 1.78%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 1.46%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 12 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 31%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

AU$7.48

26.6% undervalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Growth p.a.

%

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

2.37%

Beverage revenue growth rate

0.05%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

6.67%

Calculation

AU$486.61m

Earnings '28

x

15.13x

PE Ratio '28

=

AU$7.36b

Market Cap '28

AU$7.36b

Market Cap '28

/

811.43m

No. shares '28

=

AU$9.07

Share Price '28

AU$9.07 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 6.67% p.a.

=

AU$7.48

Fair Value '25