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Catalysts:
- The company will remediate their issues with the government and get their casino licence back, however, this is likely to take many years.
- An external player makes a take over offer that investors can't refuse. The value of Star's assets is undervalued in the balance sheet.
Assumptions:
- Steve McCann was in charge of the Crown casino during its remediation period and managed to retrive its casino licence. Ultimately, Crown was took over by Black Rock.His compensation package has huge incentives. See below:$2,500,000 Base Salary$2,500,000 Sign-on bonus$5,000,000 In sign-on performance rights after 3 years$2,500,000 (Max.) Short term incentive (FY25&26)$2,500,00 Retention pay in Liue to LTI (FY26)
- The Star is more than casinos. Hotels, F&B, retail, carparks, all of them in prime locations and real estate. These assets are clearly undervalued in their balance sheet.
Very high levels of debt, Total Debt: ~$1.957 billion
- Major Debt Maturity: December 2025 (for both the $300 million term loan and the DBC debt).
- Interest Rate: 13.50% per annum for key facilities, with a capitalisation option.
- Upcoming Refinancing: The Star will need to refinance a significant portion of its debt before December 2025.
- Tower 1 ($60mil) Tower 2 ($229mil) debts will have to be refinanced as well.
Regulatory risk:
- If The Star is unable to regain its regulatory suitability and have the Sydney license reinstated, this could lead to long-term revenue losses and further regulatory penalties. Also, its Queensland casinos are under a lot of scrutiny and can be suspended as well.
- AUSTRAC Investigation, Australia’s financial crime regulator, AUSTRAC, is investigating The Star for breaches of AML and CTF obligations. The potential penalties could include substantial fines or further restrictions on operations.
- The Star is at risk of facing substantial financial penalties due to regulatory breaches. These penalties could come from various regulators.
- Additional compliance costs Enhancing its risk management, governance, and compliance frameworks will increase operational expenses.
Valuation:
As of 30 June 2024, the book value of The Star Entertainment Group's real estate assets is broken down as follows:
- Freehold land: $72.6 million
- Freehold and leasehold buildings: $873.0 million
- Leasehold improvements: $112.7 million
- Plant and equipment: $89.8 million
- Right-of-use assets: $9.3 million
Total real estate value (Property, Plant, and equipment): $1,157.4 million
Star should be seen as a real estate company to see its value.
Revenue generation:
- Hotel Rooms:
- Sydney
- Gold Coast
- Brisbane
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Disclaimer
The user LeoChivo has a position in ASX:SGR. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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