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MI
mitchell_lawler
mitchell_lawler
•
2m
MI
mitchell_lawler
mitchell_lawler
•
2m
The Foxhole

Some believe investing across multiple markets is the key to diversification. What if it's not the silver bullet you think?

🌍 Check your true spread: Your portfolio's real revenue exposure by geography, not by listing.

🇳🇱 More than Dutch: ASML might be based in the Netherlands, but its revenue hinges on Asia. 

🔍 Index concentration: One country, two companies, one big lesson for real diversification.

Where a company is listed tells you almost nothing about where it actually makes its money. You buy ASML because it's Dutch, LVMH because it's French, Nestlé because it's Swiss, and it feels like you've spread your money across Europe, safely away from the crowded US market. 

Then you look at the revenue. Most of ASML's sales come from Asia's chip fabs. LVMH lives and dies on the Chinese and American shopper, not the French one. Nestlé earns more in the Americas than anywhere else. Your "European" basket is really a bet on the US and Chinese economies.

Even a portfolio of companies from a dozen countries can be one concentrated bet on two or three economies, because revenue, not the stock exchange, is what actually moves the price. The point is to check where your portfolio's money truly comes from, not where its stocks happen to trade, and decide whether that's the exposure you had intended.

Which economies do you deliberately want more or less exposure to?

Recent contrarian ideas

M
mitchell_lawler
mitchell_lawler
•
7h

Nasdaq will soon let you trade 23 hours a day. Buffett's advice was to barely trade at all.

🕐 The always-on market: Nasdaq's 23-hour trading day, targeted for 6 December.
🏛 The punch card in practice: Berkshire's portfolio, built to be held.
🔁 Buying back below value: Companies repurchasing shares while trading under fair value.

Buffett stepped down as Berkshire's chairman on Friday. And yet one of his ideas is more relevant than ever.

Imagine a card with 20 punches for your whole investing life. Every purchase uses one. You'd think far harder about each decision, and probably end up far better off.

From December, Nasdaq plans to trade 23 hours a day. More hours means more prices to react to, but that shouldn’t be interpreted as more reasons to act.

Which company would you happily spend one of your 20 punches on, and why?

👍🧠🔥🤡
7
10 comments
M
mitchell_lawler
mitchell_lawler
•
3d

Everyone's watching the oil price. The harder problem is the gas that can't take a detour.

🧭 Unpredictable short term: JP Morgan admits it can't model how the crisis ends.
📖 Diversion in progress: Our full read on energy stocks as oil, gas and AI power collide.
⛽ Gas that skips the chokepoint: US LNG exporters that never route through Hormuz.

Oil is easing toward US$100 as Saudi Arabia repairs a bypass pipeline, because crude can be rerouted around a blockade. It’s a different story for gas. It has to be liquefied and shipped through the same chokepoints, and Qatar, a fifth of the world's LNG, has no pipeline to skirt Hormuz. 

No detour, no quick fix. So while most people fixate on oil, the stickier risk (and potentially the more durable opportunity) could be gas.

Is there a quick fix for gas that I'm missing?

👍🧠🔥🤡
17
8 comments
M
mitchell_lawler
mitchell_lawler
•
4d

The rate hike just raised the bar every company you own has to clear before spending.

📈 Gone hiking: The Fed lifted rates for the first time since 2023.
🏗️ Disciplined by default: High-return, self-funding companies trading below fair value.
🎥 Protect your portfolio: "How to protect your retirement from a 2026 recession."

The Fed just hiked for the first time in three years and signalled higher from here. The reflex is to read that as a drag on growth. But the more optimistic read, for a long-term investor, is that it raises the required return that every company has to clear before it spends a dollar. It’s now harder to justify empire-building acquisitions and vanity projects.

In effect, the Fed just imposed a layer of capital discipline across your whole portfolio. However, it only works where management is rational in their response.

Who's the best capital allocator in the market right now?

👍🔥
8
12 comments
M
mitchell_lawler
mitchell_lawler
•
5d

A lot of companies don't have a moat, they have customers too busy to switch. AI agents could change that.

🤖 The quick switch: Meta's AI agent found and switched insurance for a US$3,500 saving.
🏰 Price aside: 12 companies with switching costs beyond customer friction.
📈 Insurance counter: WallStreetWontons outlines how Progressive could still be undervalued.

A lot of companies look more defensive than they really are. Their actual moat isn't a better product, it's the hassle for customers to find a better deal. This friction leads to many people paying more than they need to on insurance, flights, and hotels. 

AI agents could remove that friction. One person reported to have handed over his auto policy to Meta's new agent, which proceeded to find and switch him to an alternative policy for US$3,500 cheaper in five minutes.

Which of your holdings survives once shopping around becomes effortless?

👍🧠🥱🔥🤡
15
12 comments
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